Mid-Season Top 41 Review: #26 – 30 – Collin McHugh through Darrell Ceciliani

This is part three of my review of my pre-season Top 41 Mets Prospects list. THIS IS NOT A RE-RANKING. THIS IS NOT A RE-RANKING.

Part two on players 31-35 is here. Part one, on players #36-41 is here.

 

#26 – RHP Collin McHugh
What I Thought: McHugh had a chance to slot into the back end of a Mets rotation after a strong year in double-A, when his fastball ticked up a notch or two.
Reality: The Mets let McHugh dominate double-A until the middle of June, when he was promoted to triple-A Buffalo on June 18. His stuff will not blow anyone away, but is smart enough to use what he has (fastball (four and two-seam), curve, cutter, and changeup) to survive. He’s walked too many batters in his first few starts in Buffalo, and given up one fewer homeruns as he did in AA in 49 fewer innings. Yes, AAA is better than AA.
Stock: Up.

Basic


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP
2011 FSL 6.31 9/6 35.67 47 27 25 3 14 39 1 2
2011 EL 2.89 18/16 93.33 78 32 30 2 32 100 8 7
2012 EL 2.41 12/12 74.67 63 21 20 4 17 65 5 6
2012 IL 4.56 5/5 25.67 23 16 13 3 11 27 2 1
2012 Total 2.96 17/17 100.34 86 37 33 7 28 92 7 7

Advanced


BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% TBF
2011 FSL 3.5 9.8 2.8 0.8 11.9 6.81 8.5 23.8 164
2011 EL 3.1 9.6 3.1 0.2 7.5 3.09 8.1 25.4 394
2012 EL 2.0 7.8 3.8 0.5 7.6 2.53 5.6 21.5 303
2012 IL 3.9 9.5 2.5 1.1 8.1 5.61 9.2 22.7 119
2012 Total 2.5 8.3 3.3 0.6 7.7 3.32 6.6 21.8 422

 

#27 – LHP Robert Carson
What I Thought: The hard-throwing lefty was going to move to the bullpen, and the Mets placed some value on his ability by adding him to the 40-man roster.
Reality: The 23-year old moved to the bullpen, but his command issues have continued. His inability to locate is reflected both in his walk rate and his hit rate. But, hey he made his MLB debut in 2012.

The good news is that there’s a big leaguer tucked in those numbers, and I’m not talking about his two 2012 appearances. Nope, lefties have hit .192/.222/.231 in 26 AB against him. That plus his fastball, which averaged 94 mph in the big leagues will get him back to the big leagues. The fact that AA righties are hitting .309/.378/.433 against him in 97 AB says he’s a very limited pitcher right now. SSS and all, but those splits are important.
Stock: Slipped a little. He’s a LOOGY.

Basic


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP
2011 EL
– AA
5.05 25/24 128.33 154 88 72 14 55 91 3 7
2012 EL-AA 3.90 26/0 30 35 16 13 2 13 30 0 5

Advanced


SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% TBF
2011 EL 6.4 1.7 1.0 10.8 6.2 9.4 15.6 583
2012 EL 9.0 2.3 0.6 10.5 4.8 9.4 21.6 139

 

#28 – INF Zach Lutz
What I Thought: Same story every year. He hits when he’s healthy, but he’s rarely healthy.
Reality: He hit in AAA, earned in MLB debut, was sent down and then broke his hammate bone. He’s rehabbing in St. Lucie, but should rejoin the Bisons after the AAA All-Star Break. He’s 26 now, this is the beginning of his peak.
Stock: Down.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 – AAA 61 220 65 12 0 11 27 70 0 0 3 .295 .380 .500
2012 AAA 27 88 27 5 0 3 16 29 0 1 0 .307 .413 .466
2012 MLB 4 8 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125
AAA Career 93 328 98 21 0 15 45 102 0 1 3 .299 .388 .500

 

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2011 – AAA 9.2 28.0 10.8 4.4 .388
2012 AAA 7.6 27.6 15.2 2.9 .429
2012 MLB 0.0 62.5 0.0 0.0 .333
AAA Career 9.5 27.1 11.9 4.0 .393

 

#29 – SS Wilfredo Tovar
What I Thought: I loved his defense at short but was scared he’d never hit enough to hold down an everyday role.
Reality: He went to St. Lucie and increased his walk and his extra-base hit rates earning a promotion to AA Binhamton. Mets people pointed to him as a player early in the season who really was “getting it.”  One concern now is getting back to his patient a-ball approach, as he’s drawn just one walk in 15 games in AA. He’ll never have the kind of power that will scare pitchers, so he’s going to have to keep working for his walks, and making lots of contact. 
Stock: UP.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 SAL 131 491 123 21 3 2 44 53 7 3 8 .251 .318 .318
2012 FSL 65 218 62 17 1 1 29 17 1 4 4 .284 .377 .385
2012 EL 15 56 16 3 1 0 1 7 1 1 4 .286 .339 .375

 

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2011 SAL 4.7 9.6 8.0 0.4 .273
2012 FSL 7.4 6.6 11.3 0.4 .303
2012 EL 6.3 11.1 1.6 0.0 .320

 

#30 – CF Darrell Ceciliani
What I Thought: With more improvement offensively, Ceciliani could grow into an everyday centerfielder, or was headed for a fourth outfielder’s role. 
Reality: He’s hit when he’s played, but recurring hamstring problems have kept taking him off the field.
Stock: Down. No play, no improvement.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 A 109 421 109 23 4 4 52 96 0 7 8 .259 .351 .361
2012 A+ 14 53 15 4 1 1 6 10 1 0 0 .283 .350 .453

 

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP ISO
2011 A 6.4 19.7 10.7 0.8 .327 .102
2012 A+ 10.0 16.7 10.0 1.7 .326 .170

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