Three Mets Make MLB.com Top 100 Prospects… And What it Says About the System

Rafael Montero ST 13 (Baron)You can probably guess which three Mets farmhands made MLB.com’s list of the game’s Top 100 prospects: RHP Noah Syndergaard at #11, C Travis d’Arnaud at #22 and RHP Rafael Montero at #85 (pictured at right).

One note on each:

  • Syndergaard is the #3 pitching prospect on MLB’s list behind only Archie Bradley and Taijuan Walker.
  • d’Arnaud is the oldest player on MLB’s Top 100, and one of seven 24-year-olds.
  • Of the 37 RHP on the list, Montero is one of four at 6’0″ or shorter, joined by Yordano Ventura (KS – #35), Marcus Stroman (TOR – #55), Jose Berrios (MIN – #90).

With three representatives, the Mets are mid-pack. The list is dominated in volume by six teams, the Astros (7), Red Sox (9), Cubs (7), Pirates (6), Twins (5) and Rangers (5) who together account for 39 players.

One thing stands out to me about the three prospects who made MLB’s list: they should all be in the big leagues for the Mets in the second half of 2014, and should graduate from prospect lists. d’Arnaud will be the Mets’ Opening Day catcher. Syndergaard and Montero will likely begin the year in triple-A with Las Vegas. The odds are strong that the Mets, just like almost every team in baseball, will need reinforcement pitching throughout the season. As long as both Syndergaard and Montero are healthy and pitching effectively, they should be in Queens by July.

I’ll mention Cesar Puello here as another player who will likely start in triple-A, who could and hopefully for the Mets, be in a position to help the team’s outfield by the heat of summer.

After that, there’s a pretty big gap between the guys who can reasonably be expected to reach the big leagues for good in 2014 and the next group. The exception is in the bullpen where there is some depth in potential help in the near future. Some of RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Cory Mazzoni, RHP Jeff Walters, LHP Jack Leathersich, or RHP Erik Goeddel could help in the bullpen in 2014. However, none of these pitchers, despite AA time in 2013, were Top 100 guys.

The next group of potential starting pitchers or average or better regulars are relatively far away. For example, C Kevin Plawecki will start the season in double-A.  CF Brandon Nimmo, LHP Steven Matz and 2B Dilson Herrera will be ticketed for Advanced-A where they will be joined by RHP Michael Fulmer, RHP Gabriel Ynoa and RHP Luis Cessa. Recent first rounders like SS Gavin Cecchini (almost definitely) and 1B Dom Smith (maybe) will just begin their first season in Savannah in 2014. These are the guys who might next represent the Mets on future Top 100 lists. Their development in a-ball in 2014 will shape the perception of the Mets’ farm system moving forward.

21 comments
ac0814
ac0814

Plawecki and Dom Smith will be in the top 100 after next season.

Plawecki is my breakout candidate.

pochemu
pochemu

Re Plawecki: Why is Double-A "relatively far" from the majors? It seems a great many talented players make the jump.


Frankly, I'm not sold on d'Arnaud.

yankeehater
yankeehater

I kind of thought d. smith was going to sneak onto the list.

strato
strato

How come the Mets who have been talking about having patience while developing the farm system for 5 years have 3, while the Red Sox, who just won the World Series, have 9? How do they manage to win and develop at the same time? Could it be that they have a clue?

Hank259
Hank259

It's very exciting to see all these young kids developing and working their way through the system. I have no idea why to expect from the big league team, but it's going to be a fun 2014 seeing these kids continue to grow. Love the mention of Puello; I think he has the biggest opportunity to prove naysayers wrong and become a huge part of this team's future. 

Eric Olesh
Eric Olesh

D. Smith and W. Flores both made their respective positional top tens.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@ac0814Breakout to what? Last year he was a breakout, and depending on his 2014 he should sneak in. It will all depend on the quality of this upcoming draft and who gets promoted/falls off this list.


Dom Smith has to have a monster year to sneak in. Being he's ONLY a first baseman, it is very tough for him to sneak into any list.


Dilson Herrera will get back on this list with another strong year. Nimmo should get on if he has a strong & injury free year, and Cecchinni might crack in with a good showing and staying injury free as well. Matz if he ends the year healthy should land on the top 100.


So the mets could potentially have 4-5+ guys in next seasons top 100.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@pochemuHave you seen D'Arnaud's Minor league production in comparison to Plawecki?


at 22 in AA D'Arnaud hit

311./371./542 .914OPS with 21 HR and 33 doubles. 


At 22 in A- and A+ Plawecki hit 

305/.390/.448 .838OPS with 8 HR and 38 doubles. 


At same age D'Arnaud was a full level higher and out performing.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@strato 

Maybe it's because this has only been the mets focus under Sandy which has been only 3 years. Meanwhile the Red Sox have been operating in a smart manor for oh i don't know 10 years or longer since Theo was in charge in 2002ish.

Could be that. 

yankeehater
yankeehater

@strato That is amazing....I thought the same exact thing when I first saw the list. I'll say one thing, there are a lot of international guys on that top 100 list. That's one place where the mets could definitely do a little better. We're never in on the high profile international signings.

Toby Hyde
Toby Hyde moderator

@burrito I think he's a likely bullpen guy. Edited the above to add him to the list. 

arc34
arc34

@Mark Kelly @ac0814 agree with everything but Cecchini...he has no shot for this list next year....and doubtful he will ever make it, lets get real.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@yankeehater@stratoMets have always been active in the IFA market. Currently there is an allotment amount teams can spend, mets spent almost all their cap space while trading for additional. 


Not sure where these things are coming from this year:

Venezuelan catcher Ali Sanchez for $690,000. 

Dominican shortstop Yeffry de Aza for $475,000.

Venezuelan right-hander Luis Silva for $275,000.


2012 they spent 1.7 mil on Rosario a consensus top 3 player.


2011 was luis mateo

Brandon Christopher McNeely
Brandon Christopher McNeely

@Toby Hyde I know Lawley isn't a top rated guy but he did jump from A to AAA last season. He may be able to help in the near future and same with Longtime SA project Allen Dykstra who I think the FO would give a shot at 1b before they would for Wilmer Flores which for whatever reason this FO isn't high on but he very well may be the best bat in the entire organization that is ready to contribute at the MLB level..

bigstapler
bigstapler

@Toby Hyde @burrito Interestingly, you were the first writer I recall that pointed out DeGrom as a guy to watch in 2013. How has your opinion of him evolved over the past year? Did you always view him as a reliever?

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@arc34@Mark Kelly@ac0814 Why is that. Go look at the offensive numbers for the SS's on any list. Most of the time they are pedistrian, and the ones that are GOOD, profile to move off the position to 3rd, 2nd or somewhere else. 

Maybe not next year for Cecchini, and i know people hate the fact the mets took a SS in the 1st round who had pedigree and possessed + tools across the board but nothing that was ++.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@yankeehater@Mark Kelly@stratoNot exactly sure probably keep it i guess. 


Mets have always spent nearly all of it save for a few 100K and have signed multiple guys. Also in that time the yankees haven't blown the mets out of the water.


Don't go by the top 25 either, because the International scouting is very very sketchy especially in south american countries. THey are adding talent through it. Prior to the new CBA, YES 100% agree they didn't leverage their massive advantage. 


Also i started at 2011 because that's when Sandy and CO. took over from Omar. and that's when the new implementation of the allotment took place.

yankeehater
yankeehater

@Mark Kelly @yankeehater @strato in 2010 we didn't have one of the top 30 highest paid INT signings; in 2011 we had 1 (18th); in 2012 we had Rosario as the 3rd highest (fine). That's 3 in 3 years in the top 30.

The Yankees in that same time signed 9 guys.

Honestly, as the mets have been lousy, their allotment should be on the high side. Other than Rosario, id love to know what the heck they are doing with their allotment money. The 3 guys you listed besides Rosario are really not that expensive.

Toby Hyde
Toby Hyde moderator

@bigstapler @Toby Hyde @burrito Yes, when I first saw deGrom, I saw him as a good arm with a chance, with, if everything worked out, a chance to start. Now, I still think he's a good arm, but much likelier to be a reliever than a starter because his breaking ball development leaves him underpowered as an MLB starter.