Category Archives: Analysis

Duda and his Wrist and his Other Wrist

By now, Mets fans know that Lucas Duda has surgery on his right wrist which he broke while moving furniture after the team announced it. Damn, couches are dangerous.

This is not the first time Duda has had wrist problems. As a freshman at USC, he broke his left wrist on a collision at first base back in 2005. He went on to hit just .208/.322/.299 in 91 PA over 34 games that year as a 19-year old. His sophomore year, his batting average and his OBP rose, but his power did not as he hit .298/.391/.398 in 226 PA over 56 games. By his junior year, he hit for a little more power: .280/.378/.468 in 223 PA over 53 games.

Here’s his College Isolated slugging, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging to measure a batter’s power, by year:

Fr. (’05) – .091
So.  (’06) – .100
Jr. (’07) – .188

 

The next time he hit for an isolated slugging above .180: 2010 when he “broke out” with a .304/.398/.569 line in 495 PA between AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo as a 24-year old that earned him his big league debut.

How analogous are Duda’s two wrist injuries separated by over seven years and many professional paychecks? I do not know precisely. The hands (top and bottom) do different things in a player’s swing, but a batter needs both. Also, Duda’s collegiate improvement was likely a result of both improving health and physical and mental development.

Mailbag: Ike Davis, Outfielder and Other Bad Ideas

Alex writes:

I am surprised we have not heard any rumblings about possibly moving Ike Davis to the OF, particularly RF. I understand that he is a very good defensive 1B and that he may not match that defensive value in RF but he did play both positions in college as well as while in the minors, and reports when he was drafted had him throwing 90 off a mound so his arm should work fine there. The reasoning for moving him would be that for the most part, and particularly at this moment in MLB history, it is way easier to acquire around 30 HR at 1B then it is in the OF. Of course, Murphy could then move to 1st if they wanted to add a 2B or SS instead. Not saying this is what should be done but I am surprised I have not heard it as an option at all. – Alex

Toby Hyde, Mets Minor League Blog:

You haven’t heard any rumblings about moving Ike Davis to rightfield because it’s a really bad idea. Ike Davis belongs at first. It’s really that simple.

As Alex points out, Ike Davis is a solid defensive first baseman. Since 2010, his 5.4 UZR/150 is good enough for sixth among all active first basemen, behind Adrian Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, James Loney, Mark Teixeira and Joey Votto. I used UZR/150, a rate based stat, to avoid the problem of accounting for Davis’ abbreviated 2011 season.

There is no reason to think he could play a Major League caliber right field. In fact, there is a big reason to think he cannot: he’s slow. Very slow. Mets fans who have watched Davis run should know this, but there’s also a useful measure of player speed, the Bill James creation cleverly titled “speed score.”  For reference, since 2010, Carlos Gomez, Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner lead baseball with speed scores of 8.3, 8.3 and 8.1. Davis has a speed score of 2.2, or 207th out of 230 qualified Major Leaguers, and below Miguel Cabrera and his 2.3 speed.  His peers with 2.2 speed scores are Carlos Quentin, Victor Martinez, Miguel Monter and Jose Lopez. Quentin, the only outfielder of the group is a ghastly defender: – 39.8 UZR over his career and -45 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with a -10.4 UZR/150.

The other parts of the plan do not make any more sense. Daniel Murphy is a little bit above league average as a hitter with a career .292/.339/.427 line and a 108 wRC+ (where 100 is league average). He’s coming off a classic Murphy year in which he hit .291/.332/.403 with a 101 wRC+. That kind of production has value at second base, where by rate, he was the 9th-best offensive player at the position this year. (Even though he appeared to look better at second by the end of 2012, Murphy gives away a whole bunch of that value away defensively; he was -11 by DRS  and -9 by UZR.) However, Murphy’s bat is just not viable at first. By wRC+ his 101 of 2012 would have been good enough for 20th in the game.

And of course, then the Mets would need to add a second baseman which is no easy task.

So, yeah, this is a bad idea coupled with a bad idea.

Development Reading: Walks and Money

I wanted to share two really interesting articles related to player-development that not Mets-specific.

1. Jorge Arangure writes at Baseball Prospectus about the low walk rates for Latin American ballplayers, and how Carlos Santana became the exception. Arangure also points out the disparate paths taken by young Venezuelan ballplayers who play more games versus their Dominican counterparts.

For reference, the National League average is right around 8%. So, what about some of the Mets’ high-profile international prospects?

3B Wilmer Flores (Valencia, VZ)- 7.3% at AA, 6.9% in 2012 between advanced-A and AA.
OF Juan Lagares (Constanza, DR) – 6.8% in AA in 2012
3B Jefry Marte (La Romana, DR)- 8.4% in AA in 2012
OF Cesar Puello (La Romana, DR)- 2.8% in A+ in 2012
3B Aderlin Rodriguez (Santo Domingo, DR) – 7.2% total in 2012, 8.2% in the SAL, 4.9% in A+
2B/OF Jordany Valdespin (San Pedro de Macoris, DR) – 4.9% in MLB, 6.1% in AAA

Walks. More are better.

2. Mike Ashmore, the beat writer for the Trenton Thunder takes a look at how little money minor league baseball players actually make.

Scoring is Down in the Arizona Fall League

This was going to be a post about performance of Mets’ farmhands out in the desert in the Arizona Fall League, but instead it turned into a post about league itself.

I was going to apply the usual AFL caveat that this is an extreme hitters’ league and thus, one should treat the numbers produced by both hitters and pitchers with a light touch, or normalize them for league values. Then I looked at the numbers. The AFL is still is absolutely a hiters’ league, but it is less so than in recent years.

This year, the AFL is hitting a collective .266/.344/.397 and scoring 5.2 runs per game. That’s roughly comparable in terms of scoring to the 2012 version of the Pacific Coast League (.278/.345/.430; 5.1 R/G), but with a little less power. However, it is the lowest level of offense for the AFL in the last five years. The AFL’s isoloated slugging, a measure of power, is down to its lowest level in eight years (before that the data is scattered and hard to collect). On a year over year basis, AFL scoring is down 13%.

YearGRR/GAVGOBPSLGISOOPS
2012663435.2.266.344.397.131.741
201122013116.0.286.362.454.168.816
201019211085.8.283.357.431.148.788
200919211506.0.283.361.443.160.804
200822815296.7.293.365.473.180.838
200720410044.9.258.339.391.133.730
200619210875.7.275.358.413.138.771
200519211666.1.296.360.470.174.830

What’s going on here? I do not know, although I’m open to suggestions. Some potential explanations follow.

  • The league’s season is only two weeks old and this is just a dreaded small sample size blip. By November, the AFL’s power and scoring numbers will be right back to their recent historical levels. This we can test by waiting a month.
  • Perhaps teams are sending younger, less experienced and thus less powerful prospects to the AFL. The Mets’ delegation this year is a strong example of this. Among the position players, the Mets sent two outfielders from Advanced-A (Darrell Ceciliani and Cesar Puello) and an infielder from low-A (Dustin Lawley). There is not a single regular season AA plate appearance among this group. (This too is testable by comparing the average age of the players in this year’s AFL delegations to year’s past.)
  • The decline is a reflection of the overall decline in offense in baseball at the MLB level. (This is testable too – do AFL scoring and power levels track those in MLB closely?)

I’m open to other explanations as well.

Shhh… Raul Ibanez is Better vs. RHP than Alex Rodriguez

Ok, if you weren’t watching baseball Wednesday night you lose.

One quick thing from the ninth inning of the Yankees’ win over the Orioles (Raul Ibanez’s party).

Pinch-hitting Ibanez for Rodriguez was absolutely the right tactical move given that Yankees needed one run to tie the game. The best way to get one run? A solo homer.

vs RHP in ’12:

Raul Ibanez: .248/.319/.492 19 HR, 360 PA
Alex Rodriguez: .256/.326/.391, 10 HR in 356 PA

Top 41 Prospect Review: #11-15; Michael Fulmer through Aderlin Rodriguez

Again, this is a post-season review of my Preseason Top 41 Mets Prospects, which I’m making part of the Mets’ minor league season in review.

As far as the Top Prospect review pieces, part five, on players 16-20 is here, part four, on players 21-25 is here, part three, on players 26-30 is here, part two on players 31-35 is here, part one, on players #36-41 is here.

 

#11 – RHP Michael Fulmer
What I Thought: I liked Fulmer’s size, build and raw stuff (an average or better fastball, and the ability to spin a breaking ball) in a brief viewing in the Gulf Coast League in 2011. 
Reality: The Mets challenged Fulmer with an opening day assignment to Savannah and he responded very well, improving over the course of the year against older competition. Pitching Coach Frank Viola raved about Fulmer’s aptitude, work ethic and maturity from day one. His fastball at 93-95 mph, ate up SAL hitters. He and Viola prioritized working on his slider over the curveball. As the year went on, scouts’ grades on the pitch inched upward. He started throwing his changeup more, although it tended towards too firm. He made some mechanical adjustments, tucking his front hip, to give him better tempo and timing in his delivery. 
Stock: UP. 
On the Next Top 41? Top 5.

Basic


 ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP
2011 GCL 10.13 4/3 5.33 9 7 6 0 4 10 1 1
2012 SAL 2.74 21/21 108.3 92 37 33 6 38 101 6 8

Advanced


 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% TBF
2011 GCL 6.8 16.9 2.5 0.0 15.2 11.8 12.9 32.3 31
2012 SAL 3.2 8.4 2.7 0.5 7.6 3.1 8.4 22.2 454

 

 

#12 – 2B Jordany Valdespin
What I Thought: He would play second base in the big leagues, where his lack of plate discipline would hurt his value.  
Reality: Bingo. He played second an a whole bunch of centerfield in the big leagues where his lack of plate discipline (4.9% walk rate) hurt his value on the way to a .286 on-base percentage. 
Stock: Similar. Valdespin is who we thought he was. 
On the Next Top 41? Nope. Graduated.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 AA 107 404 120 24 3 15 21 68 2 7 7 .297 .341 .483
2011 AAA 27 107 30 8 0 2 4 25 1 1 0 .280 .304 .411
2011 Total 134 511 150 32 3 17 25 93 3 8 7 .294 .333 .468
2012 AAA 39 151 43 2 1 5 10 22 1 0 1 .285 .331 .411
2012 MLB 94 191 46 9 1 8 10 44 0 3 2 .241 .286 .424

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP ISO
2011 AA 9.5 15.4 4.8 3.4 .325 .186
2011 AAA 8.8 22.1 3.5 1.8 .346 .131
2011 Total 9.4 16.8 4.5 3.1 .329 .174
2012 AAA 4.9 13.5 6.1 3.1 .304 .126
2012 MLB 8.7 21.4 4.9 3.9 .273 .183

 

 

#13 – LHP Darin Gorski
What I Thought: Coming off a dominant 2011 in the Florida State League, Gorski had a chance to stick at the back end of a big league rotation. 
Reality: Gorski was ordinary at AA. The key was that his command regressed. His walk rate climbed back to the rate of 2010 in the South Atlantic League and his strikeout rate dipped to its lowest rate in full-season ball.  
Stock: Down.
On the Next Top 41? Yeah.

Basic


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP
2010 SAL 4.58 25/18 114 125 70 58 12 43 109 10 9
2011 FSL 2.08 27/21 138.67 109 40 32 11 29 140 7 7
2012 EL 4.00 25/24 139.67 128 68 62 20 50 118 4 13

Advanced


BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% HR% TBF
2010 SAL 3.4 8.6 2.5 0.9 9.9 5.5 8.4 21.3 2.3 511
2011 FSL 1.9 9.1 4.8 0.7 7.1 2.6 5.2 25.2 2.0 555
2012 EL 3.2 7.6 2.4 1.3 8.2 4.4 8.6 20.2 3.4 584

 

 

#14 – RHP Domingo Tapia
What I Thought: He was big and threw hard and had a changeup and that was enough for me.
Reality: He’s big, and he throws really hard out of a low arm slot with movement, and that makes him a fine prospect. Tapia, who regularly hit 99 mph, has one of the best fastballs in the system alongside only Zack Wheeler. His two-seamer can be unhittable at times with sink. He started working more with a four-seamer as well as the year went on. His second pitch is a changeup at 88-91 that when it’s right, disappears down. Up, it becomes an ordinary fastball. His breaking ball came and went; at times he showed the makings of a viable slider, but he threw it less during the second half to focus on his two fastballs and changeup. 
Stock: Up a little.
On the Next Top 41? Duh.

Basic


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP
2011 APP 3.78 11/11 50 50 28 21 3 16 30 1 5
2011 NYP 0.00 1/1 6 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
2012 SAL 3.98 20/19 108.67 92 55 48 2 32 101 2 5

Advanced


BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% TBF
2011 APP 2.9 5.4 1.9 0.5 9.0 5.0 7.5 14.1 213
2011 NYP 0.0 9.0 INF 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 27.3 22
2012 SAL 2.7 8.4 3.2 0.2 7.6 4.6 7.1 22.3 452

 

 

#15 – 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
What I Thought: I loved Rodriguez’s power. 
Reality: He led all Mets’ minor leaguers with 24 homeruns. He figured out the South Atlantic League as a 20-year old hitting a very loud .307/.368/.555 from May 1 until he was promoted to advanced-A St. Lucie on July 12. After a slow first two weeks in July, in the FSL, he bounced back to hit .278/.321/.519 in 21 games in August. Rodriguez made modest improvements defensively at third and started working seriously at first base, playing 10 games at the position between Savannah and St. Lucie. 
Stock: Up. 
On the Next Top 41? Definitely.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
2011 SAL 131 516 114 23 2 17 29 106 .221 .265 .372
2012 SAL Total 83 318 87 21 1 16 29 71 .274 .336 .497
2012 April 24 100 20 6 1 3 8 24 .200 .266 .370
SAL After May 1 59 218 67 15 0 13 21 47 .307 .368 .555
FSL 42 153 37 5 0 8 8 30 .242 .288 .431
2012 Total 125 471 124 26 1 24 37 101 .263 .321 .476

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2011 SAL 7.6 19.2 5.2 3.1 .245
2012 SAL Total 10.8 20.2 8.2 4.5 .305
2012 April 9.2 22.0 7.3 2.8 .233
2012 Since May
1		 11.5 19.3 8.6 5.3 .338
FSL 8.0 18.4 4.9 4.9 .252
2012 Total 9.9 19.6 7.2 4.7 .287

Who’s Made the Playoffs More Recently than the Mets?

I brought this up on yesterday’s podcast, but did not get it right at the time. Since the Mets last made the playoffs in 2006, they are one of only eight teams to miss the playoffs in all of the last six years. I said the Mets were one of six teams and Patrick and Ted both rightly told me that did not sound right.

The futile eight: the Mets, Marlins, Pirates, Astros, Padres, Jays, Royals and Mariners. Every division in baseball is represented among this group.

In breaking news, it’s been a long time since the Mets were in the playoffs. Most other teams have been better than the Mets in the last six years.

After the jump, I reviewed the gory details for every team since the Mets last played postseason baseball.

To read more of this story, click here

When Players Stop Developing; Mets Version

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Russell Carleton does a nice investigative piece about when players more or less stop developing.

His conclusion:

It looks like a critical period for player development ends around 26. So, if your favorite player hasn’t figured it out by then, chances are that he won’t.

 

This is not really news, but adds a layer of complexity to peak age discussions about whether players peak at 27 (many) or 30 (others).

Put another way, the jump between players’ age 25 and 26 seasons is the last good (common) chance to improve.With that conclusion in mind, lets take a look at the 2013 Opening Day ages for Mets position players.

Catchers
Mike Nickeas – 30
Josh Thole – 26
Kelly Shoppach – 32

Josh Thole came into this year a career .276/.350/.356 hitter in 204 big league games. He’s plummeted to .237/.299/.294 entering his age 26 season. There’s no question concussions marred Thole’s 2012. Where he goes from here, moving from 25-26, at an age when players regularly still develop, will be crucial. So, for fans eager to cut bait on Thole, be patient, he should get one more year.

Infielders
Ike Davis – 26
Zach Lutz – 26
Daniel Murphy –  28
Ruben Tejada – 23
Justin Turner – 28
David Wright – 30

Is there a reasonable chance that Ike Davis improves on his 2012? Sure.
On the other hand, Daniel Murphy is Daniel Murphy at this point.

 

Outfielders
Mike Baxter – 28
Jason Bay – 34
Lucas Duda – 27
Scott Hairston – 32
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 25
Andres Torres – 34
Jordany Valdespin – 25

 

Put simply, Lucas Duda is at an age where players do not generally continue developing dramatically.

At .239/.329/.392, that’s bad news for the Mets. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, on the other hand, for all of his troubles, and his 32% strikeout rate in 2012 still is at an age where players do get better.

Age always matters. It matters for prospects and it matters for big leaguers.

Jenrry Mejia: So that was encouraging

This was encouraging: Jenrry Mejia last night: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 8 groundous/1 fly out.

This was even more encouraging: of his 95 pitches, 21 were curveballs according to Brooksbaseball’s classifications. In 2010, he threw the pitch 10% of the time. If he’s going to start, he needs to throw his breaking ball. And keep throwing it. He induced a few strikeouts with the pitch. It acts like a hard curveball from 78-82 mph, with an average of 80 mph, with an average of 8 inches of vertical break. On the SNY broadcast, Ron Darling referred Mejia throwing the offering with a “slider grip.” Whatever it’s called, Mejia needs to throw the pitch more to keep batters off his fastball.

Silliness about Melky Cabrera from Jon Heyman

Jon Heyman has a really foolish piece at CBSsports under the headline, “Giants shouldn’t even think about bringing Melky back in October.”

I disagree, PED suspension and all, they should think about bringing Cabrera back, as long as he can get himself in game shape for the playoffs. Cabrera is a good player, who was having a monster season, and is far better than their other options. Teams with more good players generally win more games. Lets go through Jon’s arguments.

 

They are 20-10 since star outfielder Melky Cabrera was suspended after testing positive for testosterone, and also after trying his shenanigans after the failed test.

If I’m counting correctly, at the time the article was published, in the afternoon of September 19, the Giants were 21-10 since Cabrera was suspended, from 64-53 on the afternoon of August 15 to 85-63 yesterday, but who cares, right? The Giants won again on Wednesday night, September 19 and are now 22-10 since Cabrera was suspended.

In those 32 games, the Giants have a run differential of 158-130, or +28. They’ve scored 5.3 runs per game and allowed 4.3 runs per game. This is a team that averages 4.4 runs per game.

Fifteen of these games were against four of the six worst teams in the NL (Colorado, Houston, Chicago, and San Diego). The Giants went 12-3 in those contests.

Where’s the Giants’ offense coming from? Since Cabrera’s suspension, on August 15, Buster Posey is hitting a Posey-ish .345/.417/.534 with 15 walks and 16 extra-base hits in those 30 games. Angel Pagan has hit a heavenly .326/.363/.529 with 19 extra-base hits and eight walks. Gregor Blanco has filled in admirably going .293/.346/.373 with a totally unsustainable .431 BABIP.

 

Cabrera is in Miami now. He hasn’t been with the team. There’s no sign he cares about them.

I’ve heard there are both gyms and batting cages in Miami. Maybe he has not been with the Giants because oh, MLB suspended him from the team? Perhaps the signed postcards from Melky in Miami to the clubhouse or to Jon, to let him know he was thinking about the Giants got lost in the mail. Or perhaps, he has been texting with some of his buddies on the team.

 

There is no reason to believe the Giants will be tempted to employ him in October.

Ooh, I have a reason. Cabrera hit .320/.364/.469 in 105 games this year with a .149 isolated slugging percentage. Sure, he did that with a .351 BABIP, so he was likely to regress. Giants LF not named Melky Cabrera have hit .271/.340/.350 with a .079 slugging percentage and thanks to an even sillier .389 BABIP.

 

If the argument is that Cabrera could not get himself ready to contribute in game action in October because he will be rusty, fine. If Gregor Blanco is better in two weeks than Cabrera, ok. However, arguing that the Giants, after one month of baseball, in which they have beaten up on bad opponents are better off without one of their best hitters, is silly.

This article could easily have been written arguing that since the Giants are 8-5 against teams with .500 or better winning percentages, or just 2-3 against teams currently in position to make the playoffs (Washington and Atlanta) that the Giants need Cabrera in October.