MLB.com moves forward with their position-by-position prospect rankings, and yesterday, put Wilmer Flores at #10 among all Major League second-base prospects.
He slots in behind Kolten Wong (Cardinals), Rougned Odor (Rangers), Mookie Betts (Red Sox), Arismendy Alcantara (Cubs), Devon Travis (Tigers), Jonathan Schoop (Orioles), Taylor Lindsey (Angels), Eddie Rosario (Twins) and Micah Johnson (White Sox). I’ve seen four of those guys play live.
Here’s the comment on Flores:
Flores has a knack for putting his bat on the ball and has begun to realize his power potential. Though he played almost exclusively at third base during his brief time in New York, he profiles best at second base and is nearly ready for a full-time spot in the big leagues.
The question remains whether he has the foot speed and agility to play second. I am far from sold on this point. He’s quite likely to outhit many of the players in front of him on the list, but he also has to prove that he can play second base.
Almost there… we can finish the infield by looking at Mets prospects by position with third base. It’s thin here.
It’s a much shorter list than the compilation of shortstops. We began with catcher, first base and second base. So, off we go to the hot corner…
1. Wilmer Flores
2. Aderlin Rodriguez
3. Pedro Perez
4. Jhoan Urena
1. I could have made Flores the Mets top first base prospect. However, I placed him here because I think his value would be maximized by playing third, which he began doing regularly stateside in 2012.
Flores was not great at third in 2013, but I think a team can play him there everyday. He should have enough arm for third, and the hands for the position. However, his relatively slow feet will put him out of position occasionally, and put him at a higher risk of throwing errors. It’s possible he winds up playing mostly first base in the big leagues.
Flores, who will be 22 on Opening Day 2014, can hit. He’s hit at every minor league stop. However, in 2013, he posted a career-best .210 isolated slugging percentage in Las Vegas and a walk rate of 5.4%, his lowest since his Florida State League in 2010 and 2011. Once in the big leagues, his walk rate slipped to 5.0%. That is below average. It is extremely difficult to be a valuable offensive player with a walk rate that low. A quick flip through Fangraphs’ “Offense” stat, suggests that no player in the Top 30 in baseball had a walk rate that low until we get to Starling Marte at #31. Flores has been better in the winter, running walk rates of 8.2% and 9% in the last two winters in Venezuela and 7.3% in 2012 in the AA Eastern League.
Anyway, Flores won’t play third base for the Mets, unless David Wright is hurt. So, he will likely begin 2014 in Las Vegas working largely at second, with games at both first and third to stay sharp at both in case the Mets need help at either.
2. Rodriguez hit .260/.295/.427 with 14 doubles and nine homers in 62 games for St. Lucie in an injury-shortened campaign. He followed that up with a .194/.205/.222 line with zero walks and 18 strikeouts in 19 games in the Arizona Fall League. There’s real power here, but maybe nothing else.
3. I saw the best game of Pedro Perez’s life, when he smacked two home runs on July 4th. He’s a big kid who hit .264/.314/.365 at age 18 in the Appalachian League where he picked up all but nine plate appearances against pitchers older than himself.
4. Urena, who the Mets signed for $425,000 in 2011, hit .299/.351/.376 in 47 games in the GCL in 2013, while turning 19 on September 1. He drew nice reviews from
1. Baseball America’s Ben Badler “Switch-hitter who can drive the ball from both sides … he’s made a lot of strides with his pitch recognition and hitting approach and the raw power is definitely in there. He’s a big-bodied guy so he’s going to have to work to stay at third base, but the bat potential there is very intriguing.”
2. Jeff Moore (now at BP): “Urena stood out on the field because of how he moved for a guy his size. Listed at 6’1″ 200 lbs., he’s probably put on a few additional pounds since then. The additional size helps him generate a powerful swing, but he handles it well, especially at third base. Despite his size, he shows good range at the position, and while he still has the inconsistencies that come with being 18, his hands are soft enough to become a good, consistent defender there. He has a plus arm that fires the ball across the diamond with easy action.”
- Wilmer Flores (Bravos de Margarita – VWL) – The 22-year-old played in three straight games for the second straight week. This time, he was 5-for-10, with a double, a homer, a walk, a strikeout and a caught-stealing. He’s now hitting .372/.451/.488 with six walks and four strikeouts in 12 games.
- Juan Lagares (Aguilas Cibaenas – DWL) - DNP last week. Still resting his knee, which is scheduled to keep him out for three weeks.
That Bullpen Battle
- Joel Carreno (Escogido - DWL) – Just one appearance in the last week (1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1.1 BB, 0 K). He’s allowed three runs, two earned on six hits in 14 games).
- Jeurys Familia (Gigantes del Cibao – DWL) – No appearances in the last week for Familia who has a 12/6 K/BB ratio in 10.2 off-season innings between the AFL and the DWL.
- Gonzlez Germen (Toros del Este – DWL) - The 26-year-old has not appeared in a game since November 30.
See You in Sin City (Projected Las Vegas 51s on Opening Day 2014)
- C Juan Centeno – (Gigantes de Carolina – PWL) – Four games in the last week for the 24-year-old in which he hit a combined 7-for-11 with two doubles. He’s up to .275/.333/.392 in 19 games in Puerto Rico.
- LHP Chase Huchingson (Aguilas del Zulia - VWL) – The 24-year-old did not throw this week.
- OF Cesar Puello (Toros del Este – DWL) – After a really bad start to the winter season, Puello is almost back to hitting .200 after a week in which he played four games, going 3-for-12 (.250) with zero extra-base hits, two strikeouts and a walk, his second in 33 games. He’s now at 25 strikeouts against two walks with two extra-base hits, both homers and is four of five stealing bases to go along with a .198/.238/.260 line overall in the Dominican.
- SS Wilfredo Tovar has not played since November 21 for Navegantes del Magallanes in Venezuela.
- RHP Ryan Fraser (Leones de Ponce – PWL) – After a 5.63 ERA and a 25/26 K/BB in AA this year, Fraser has allowed two runs on eight hits in 7.1 innings in five games in Puerto Rico. Fraser actually has some work to do to break camp in AAA, and his Opening Day assignment will also depend on how many reliever types the Mets bring in for their big league bullpen and AAA and the subsequent cascade down through the system.
Bingo Bound/Hoping to break camp in AA
- INF TJ Rivera (Indios de Mayaguez - PWL) – The 25-year-old was 1-for-3 with a homerun last Monday in Puerto Rico to push his winter line to .308/.357/.538 with a homer, a walk and one strikeout in nine games.
… The non-drafted free agent has worked his way up the Mets’ system in the last year culminating in a .289/.348/.351 line with two homers for St. Lucie while playing 111 games at second base and backing up 15 games at shortstop. He’s a pretty safe bet to begin 2014 at NYSEG stadium.
- C Xorge Carrillo (Aguilas de Mexicali – LMP) – The 24-year-old extended a five-game hitting streak in Mexico with a 3-for-5 game that included a double and a homer and four RBI. He’s up to .283/.351/.384 in 43 games this winter for Aguilas. He has never played in 43 games in an US-based professional season, topping out at 36 this past season with Binghamton and St. Lucie. He’s a thick 6’1″ who has He will be fighting with Cam Maron in Spring Training for the right to break Spring Training with AA Binghamton as Kevin Plawecki’s backup.
-RHP Miller Diaz (Leones del Caracas - VWL) – A starter in Brooklyn in 2013, Diaz will likely open 2014 in the Savannah rotation. In 8.1 innings over 11 games out of the bullpen in Venezuela, he’s walked seven and fanned six.
And Our Player of the Week…
Wilmer Flores. He hit .500 with a homer. That’ll do. He still has more walks than strikeouts in his brief Venezuelan season. He does not have a position yet for the 2014 Mets, but he’s hitting.
Late Monday night, the Mets announced that they were giving Wilmer Flores, who turns 22 on Tuesday, the best gift a ballplayer could ever want: his first big league callup.
Flores has had a strong season in the hitter-friendly environment of Las Vegas, hitting .321/.357/.531 with 36 doubles, four triples and 15 homers and 25 walks against 63 strikeouts in 463 PA over 107 games. His isolated slugging percentage is a career-best .210 as is his 11.9% extra-base hit rage. He’s walked in 5.4% of his plate appearances (too low) and fanned in 13.6% (wonderfully low). He’s 8th in the PCL in batting average, #2 in doubles, fourth in hits, tops in extra-base hits and second in total bases. Using wOBA, which (EDIT: does not) adjust for park environment, he’s 12th in the PCL (.385).
The previous paragraph pretty much covers what Flores does well: he hits. He makes consistent line drive contact. He might have had the best hand-eye-bat coordination I have ever seen in a-ball. He’s not an elite bat speed guy, but he has more than enough to catch up to any fastball. He’s not a major power in the sense that he won’t put on show at 5 pm in batting practice (or he did not used to), but he has plenty to make a pitcher pay for a mistake. He just makes barrel contact and lots of it. He has a balanced swing and handles velocity and breaking stuff. His strikeout rate of 13.6% is actually his highest of his minor league career. His walk rate has bounced around, peaking stateside at 7.3% in double-A in 2012 before slipping to 5.4% in AAA this year. If he has a flaw as a hitter, it is his knowledge that he can handle any minor league fastball, and swing at it, and probably put it in play reasonably hard somewhere. He will need to be a little more patient in the big leagues.
Defensively, he has soft hands and plenty of arm for any infield position, including third or short on the left side of the diamond.
Now for the negatives: 1. he’s slow and 2. because of that, he’s still looking for his everyday home on the diamond.
The table below tracks Flores’ games by position by year as a professional.
When the Mets initially moved Flores off of shortstop to thirdbase in 2012, reviews from scouts were downright hostile. As the season wore on they became slightly more tempered to the point that his supporters felt his bat could carry him at third although his glove would likely always be below average. Flores, who had played some second base in winter ball in Venezuela, began playing the keystone stateside in 2012 to similarly poor reviews. The issue is not hands. It is simply range. He a big guy with slow feet. His bat plays best at second, but he will give back some of his value at the position to grounders that leak by him into the outfield. Blocked in the big leagues at third once the Mets re-signed David Wright, Flores played second base exclusively for Las Vegas except for one game at third on April 15, until he mixed in a game at first on May 12. He played first once every two or three weeks until early July when he played first base six times in 10 games from July 7 through July 24, sandwiched around a sprained ankle. Flores shifted back to third base Saturday and Sunday and played first and third on Monday night.
Defensively, I think the Mets would be best off in the near term with Flores at third base and Daniel Murphy at second. There’s a tradeoff between the fact that Flores’ footspeed works better at third than at second, and that he has played very little third base this year while Murphy has made himself into a solid second baseman and seen relatively little work at third. He’s going to field most of what’s hit to him where ever he plays. The question is how many balls he can reach.
I’m eager to see how Terry Collins deploys Flores defensively. I’m also looking forward to watching him hit, just because he can.
Baseball America notices that Wilmer Flores is hitting well for AAA Las Vegas and pegs him as one of the prospects “surging” into the second half:
Flores has cracked 16 extra-base hits (five HR, 10 2B, one 3B) in the past 26 games for Las Vegas. With an uncharacteristic 22-4 K-BB ratio in that time, he appears to be making a concerted effort to hit for power, and so far it’s been working. Only Albuquerque outfielder Nick Buss has more extra-base hits (17) in this sample. The 21-year-old Flores has played four of his past eight games at first base, suggesting he may be auditioning for a look at that position in New York this summer.
AAA: @ Tacoma Rainiers (SEA) 2, Las Vegas 51s 0
Vegas collected just three hits total against Mariners’ prospect Danny Hultzen and three relievers. Hultzen, the #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft, was excellent: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.
2B Wilmer Flores was 1-for-4 with a double, his 25th, and a strikeout. The 22-year-old is hitting .311/.348/.510 overall and .359/.396/.609 in 92 AB against lefties.
Against Hultzen and friends, 1B Ike Davis was 0-for-4. His second straight o-for dropped him down to .283/.433/.660 in 15 games in AAA. He’s actually 6-for-18 with a double and two homers against lefties in AAA, SSS and all.
AA: The B-Mets were rained out for the second straight night.
It’s like a rain cl0ud is following that affiliate around the North-East.
AAA: @ Tucson Padres 5, Las Vegas 51s 3
Hey, remember that power-hitting 1B the Mets used to have? Also, remember that guy who hit .161/.242/.258 in 55 games this year in New York? Well, he’s hit safely in five straight games in AAA, and has back-to-back two homerun games. In 11 games in AAA, he’s hit .333/.480/.744 with four doubles and four homers, to go with nine walks and seven strikeouts. Everything is good there. Ike Davis is hitting for power, he’s walking and not striking out too much.
It’s almost like it’s easier for a player to learn something and iron out their kinks at an easier level. Remember this next time you wonder why a player has not been promoted.
2B Wilmer Flores also homered, his eighth of the year. The 21-year-old is hitting .309/.349/.504 with 23 doubles, four triples and eight homers (that’s 35 XBH total) in 71 games.
Chris Schwinden (3-7, 6.37) was Schwindeny: 5 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
AA: Erie Seawolves (PIT) 5, Binghamton Mets 2
Who didn’t play? RF Cesar Puello had his second-straight night off. According to Press & Sun Bulletin beat man, Lynn Worthy, Puello had a sore foot. One of the dangers of leading the Eastern League in HBP is the cost of missing a few games with nicks and bruises.
RHP Logan Verrett (8-3, 3.97): 7.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 2 HR. Verrett threw a silly 78% of his pitches for strikes which explains the 11k/1 BB, but the hits and homers are the result of so many below average fastballs in the zone. In a league where the average ERA is 4.04, Verrett, at 3.97 is basically average. He’s fourth in walk rate, fourth in innings pitched, and has allowed the second most HR in the League (13).
After Sunday’s game, the Mets sent three players who were not performing like big leaguers to AAA and replaced them with three players unlikely ever to contribute like big leaguers. It speaks to just how poorly the Mets are playing, and the lack of immediate Major League help that the team could execute a three-for-three swap, or four-for-four if one expands the moves by two days to include the Rick Ankiel/Kirk Nieuwenhuis swap, or five-for-five to add Collin McHugh/David Aardsma and expect to see such little return on the field. It was the first time the Mets made three MLB demotions in a day since 2004.
The Mets sent 1B Ike Davis, OF Mike Baxter and LHP Robert Carson down to AAA Las Vegas. The plan is to select 1B Josh Satin (and add him to the 40-man roster) and recall LHP Josh Edgin and OF Colin Cowgill, who are already on the 40-man roster. This is action (the WSJ word, or a message says the Post), but the players coming to the big leagues will not materially move the Mets towards fielding a winning team.
Davis is the most important player of the six moving before the Mets begin a series Tuesday against St. Louis. Coming into 2013, his age 26 season he was a career .252/.336/.461 hitting over 339 Major League games with 58 homers and a 11% walk rate against 23% strikeout rate. The Mets were counting on him to be part of their core group of position players moving into a more win-filled future in 2014. Instead, Davis did not just not hit like a productive 1B, he did not hit like a Major League player in 207 PA. His wRC+ of 39 (! – where 100 is MLB average) was the second-worst among qualified Major League hitters, better than only Jeff Keppinger. Overall, he was hitting .161/.242/.258 with a 9% walk rate and an unacceptable 32% strikeout rate. Davis has been a win below replacement level one third of the way through the 2013 season.
He belongs in AAA. Recall that Davis played just 10 games in AAA at the start of the 2010 season before the Mets got sick of the Mike Jacobs experiment at first base. At the time, the move made sense for a Mets’ team that still thought it was a competitor. Once down in AAA, Davis has no excuse for not producing. He will be playing in one of baseball’s environments most conducive to offense in a market far removed from New York both geographically and metaphorically in terms of pressure.
The 28-year-old Baxter, and one of the heroes of Johan Santana’ 2012 no-hitter had not hit while working as the Mets’ fourth or perhaps fifth outfielder. In 102 PA, he hit .212/.333/.282 with five extra-base and zero homeruns. He draws walks (12% walk rate) in 2013, but that’s about all he has done as his .070 isolated slugging percentage is anemic. With respect to Baxter, Terry Collins’ has deployed him as well as he could have, playing him nearly exclusively against righties. From 2010 through 2012, Baxter hit righties capably – .275/.370/.440 with 15 doubles and four homers in 200 AB. He never hit lefties (1-for-21; a .048/.200/.095 line) for an extreme platoon split. In 2013, Baxter is 3-for-9 against lefties, but has failed against righties (.197/.326/.276 in 76 AB). There are small sample size issues here under 100 PA, but a platoon bench-hitter who doesn’t hit against the side he is supposed to menace has no big league value.
Rob Carson has just never given any indication that he can retire big league hitters. His year, he owns a 8.50 ERA, and in 18 innings has given up 19 hits, 18 runs, 17 ER, 8 (!) HR, with seven walks and seven strikeouts. Carson’s size and fastball (~93 mph in 2013) got him to the big leagues where his below average secondaries and fastball command made him a late-inning gift to opposing hitters.
So, how about that help coming back to the Mets? Expect little.
In the outfield, the Mets are recalling Cowgill, who owns a .235/.291/.308 MLB line in 268 MLB PA over the last three years. While playing in the PCL in 2011 through 2013, he has hit .307/.381/.476 in 885 PA over his age 25-27 seasons.
In the bullpen, Edgin gave up over a run an inning his big league tour early in the season. The Mets sent him back to AA where he gave up seven runs in eight innings and was scored upon in three of his five appearances. That was good enough to earn a return trip to Las Vegas where he’s allowed seven runs on 14 hits in 10.2 innings with 12 strikeouts and two walks, which is better. Yes, he’s only four outings without allowing a run: that’s a stretch of 4.2 innings with two hits, a HPB, a walk and 4 K. Break out the champagne. Edgin was a below replacement pitcher in 2012, and was significantly worse in 2013. Major small sample size caveat here, but the reason he moved from tolerable to intolerable was that he lost his slider which had a pitch value of +2.8 runs above average in 2012 to -1.6 in 2013.
The 28-year-old Satin is 5-for-26 (.192) in his brief big league looks in 2011 and 2012. Like Cowgill, he has been a productive hitter at AAA: .297/.397/.447 in 951 PA between 2011-2013, two-thirds of which was in the International League and this season in the Pacific Coast League. The notion that he is an important part of the Mets’ future at first base is laughable. Rather, he belongs, perhaps, as a right-handed bat off a bench. A collegiate second baseman, Satin has played 47 games at first for Las Vegas this year and one game in left. In the past he has played a little third, although his arm is short for the position.
Who should be playing first base? Lucas Duda. Despite a low batting average (.228) Duda, through the strength of walks (13.3%) and homers (10 in 57 games) has been an above average hitter (.336 OBP/.440 SLG and a 118 wRC+) in 2013. A star? No. A useful big league hitter? Yes. The problem is that he gives back nearly all of his offensive production with his defensive foibles in the outfield. UZR puts him an extraordinary -35 runs/150 games defensively in the outfield. If that seems too bad to be true, Total Zone puts him -19/1200 innings while BIS put him a similar -20 runs above average per 1200 innings. Lucas Duda’s defense makes him unplayable in the outfield. As long as Ike Davis is in the minors, starting Duda in the outfield is a waste of time.
Younger in the Outfield
Perhaps the fourth move that should be lumped in here is the Mets’ designating Rick Ankiel for assignment, which will likely foreshadow his release. Ankiel hit an entirely predictable and putrid .182/.239/.364 in 20 games for the Mets. His departure opens the way for Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ return and more playing time for Juan Lagares and Jordany Valdespin. Over his last 26 games in AAA, Nieuwenhuis hit .250/.353/.550 with 9 homers and 26 strikeouts. The strikeouts will always be a problem for him in the big leagues, but at 25 years old, it makes a lot more sense to run him out there in centerfield instead of Ankiel.
Older in the Staff
Going all the way back to Saturday, the Mets sent Collin McHugh, who just turned 26, back to AAA and replaced him with 31-year-old David Aardsman. This pains me because I really like McHugh who is funny and insightful, but he just was not pitching well enough to stay in the big leagues (7 IP, 12 H, 8 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K). Aardsma has thrown one Major League inning in the last two years, but hey, in 2009 and 2010 he was a capable, if unspectacular reliever for the Mariners. For his career, he owns a 105+ ERA+. Perhaps he can be a non-flammable middle reliever.
Fans want to see 21-year-old Wilmer Flores. After a slow opening week for AAA Las Vegas, he’s been very productive. In his last 50 games, he has hit .318/.356/.512 with 27 extra-base hits (20 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR), 10 walks, and 26 strikeouts. He’s played 47 games at second, two at first and one at third. He is just not an option at first base for the Mets until he plays more first in the minors. However, his value will be much, much higher if he can play second where his bat profiles better.
And for now, the Mets do not need a second baseman. Daniel Murphy is fourth overall in baseball in WAR (1.9) for 2B, part of a pack that includes Marco Scutaro (1.9), Murphy, Brandon Philips, Howie Kendrick and Jedd Gyorko (1.8 each) and Robinson Cano (1.6). Defensive metrics are imprecise over partial seasons and some of Murphy’s value comes from his +5.3 UZR, which is better than all of his peers listed above. I don’t think there’s any executive in the game who would take Murphy over Cano or Philips. So let’s revise and instead of labeling Murphy a Top 5 second baseman, call him Top 10.
Can Flores play second? Even Las Vegas manager Wally Backman is not sure. As he told MiLB.com:
“The thing is, he turns the double play well, he has good hands,” he said. “His range is a little limited, but we’re working on trying to increase it as much as possible. The more he plays second base, the better he’ll become. Position will be a big factor for him.”
The Mets seem committed to getting Flores repetitions at second now. What’s that means for Murphy? Nothing yet. One of
two three scenarios is likely for Murphy and the Mets: either 1. the team trades Murphy and rolls with Flores at second, or 2. gives up on the Flores at second base idea and moves him to first, 3. moves Murphy to first to make room for Flores (and Ike Davis and Lucas Duda disappear). Three is unlikely to happen, and Murphy’s offense – no seasons above a .450 slugging percentage in which he’s played 50 games, just is not worth much at first. Still, Flores is hardly a finished product – he either needs to improve defensively at second or develop more power to play first. Either is possible, but there’s no urgency here.
Where does this leave the Mets? Still 23-35 with the second-worst record in the National League. Swapping out Ankiel for Nieuwenhuis is a net positive and opened a spot on the team’s 40-man roster. Putting Ike Davis in AAA where he has a chance to fix himself is appropriate. Adding David Aardsma over Collin McHugh is a small net gain for the bullpen, but Aardsma himself has little chance of contributing to the Mets’ next winning team. In this sense, the move carries little significance.
Everything else that has happened roster-wise in the last two days is just churn. The moves all are justifiable, reasonable and well-intentioned, and even you know, right. And yet, they will not make the Mets materially better. That’s a weird and sorry commentary.
AAA: Las Vegas 51s 8, @ Fresno Grizzlies (SF) 0
RHP Carlos Torres (5-3, 4.31) was outstanding in a complete game for the 51s: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K. He’s still Carlos Torres. Torres has been really good in his last three starts: 22.2 IP, 13 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 28 K, 0.79 ERA.
2B Wilmer Flores was 2-for-5 with two runs scored and two strikeouts and is now up to .290/.335/.462 with 20 doubles in 54 games. He doesn’t walk much (6% of the time) and does not strike out (11.1%). He just finished up a May with an .873 OPS and 16 extra-base hits.