Top 100 Prospects

Baseball America and Project Prospect both released their Top 100 Prospects in Baseball on Tuesday.

BA:
#56 – Jenrry Mejia

Best Tool: Fastball, Grade: 70

#62 – Ike Davis

Best Tool: Power, Grade: 60

#77 – Fernando Martinez

Best Tool: Power, Grade: 60

#88 – Wilmer Flores

Best Tool: Power, Grade: 60

I wonder how these grades would compare to the numbers scouts have put on these players.  In each case, these rankings feel a little higher than the scouts’ consensus.

Project Prospect takes a different tack:
#10 – Fernando Martinez

Plus power/good contact skills may allow him to ascend to stardom some day

#48 – Jon Niese

Commands a sinking FB; CB and SL both get swing-throughs; Likely no. 3 starter

#57 – Ike Davis

Comment: Strong pro debut; contact is a concern; potential to hit 35+ bombs a season

#92 – Reese Havens

Began shift to 2B at AFL; patient fly-ball hitter with make outs but solid power

#100 – Jenrry Mejia

Filthy 94-98 FB w/ hard, cutting action; CH has excellent movement; may be a RP


I prefer at least one piece of Project Prospect’s approach: Niese could be one of the Mets top four starters this year, and should make the top #100. The divergence on everyone but Ike Davis is fairly striking.

There are 6 comments

  1. MrMustSeeTv

    I think Omar and his staff get a bit of bad rap when it comes to the farm system. It usually takes about 4-5 years for a farm system to start producing after it’s been barren. It may have take a bit longer, which may be attributable to the Mets poor philosophy of rushing their prospects as well as not going above slot. Still, they have drafted well in later rounds, although I still give them mediocre scores for their early round drafting in each draft in the Minaya ere except for Ike Davis’ draft class but that’s just my opinion. That said, I don’t want to get away from the fact that the farm system looks like it will start producing players that can contribute in the majors, which is good and could then allow the Mets to spend their resources on a top-flight free agent in the coming years.

    The Mets graduated Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell last year. This year?

    Let’s take a look, in the order that they may appears in the majors:

    (1) Jon Niese, SP: He’s either a #3 or #4 depending on which scout you ask, but that means he’s essentially a Randy Wolf-type. Wolf just got 3 years and $30M this offseason. If Niese reaches that potential, then it gives the Mets someone in the front 4 for the rotation.

    (2) Ike Davis, 1B: It’s a toss-up between him and F-Mart, but I think the Mets have more question marks at 1B than OF. I’ve seen Davis play on TV in college and live at Brooklyn and Binghamton. It was night and day for him from 2008 to 2009. His swing was cleaner, he looked more comfortable and he was driving balls up the middle as well. The raw power is evident. He’ll need to make better contact. At first, I liked his footwork and range. He can be an above-average defensive player in my opinion. That said, he has enough speed and arm (he was a reliever in college) to play RF if needed, so it gives the Mets options.

    I see him and I think Adam Laroche with a bit more power.

    (3) Fernando Martinez, OF: I think he’s a LF both in range and arm after seeing him for two years now. Still he could play RF, although his arm may be just average. I think he’s a slightly below average CF to be honest. I don’t see the speed that he was once touted as having and I think that may be that he lost a step or two as he filled out.

    Still, the talent is obvious. I think he needs to get in better shape. When I saw him last year, he seemed to be carrying some extra weight, which is not acceptable when you’re 20 and considered the Mets top prospect. That said, the power is obvious and his Winter League showing will hopefully be a springboard.

    I know people think that he’s not trade bait with the Mets signing Bay. I don’t see that. Why trade a talented player? The Mets have two players that could break down in Bay (shoulders) and Beltran (knee) and a guy that has been inconsistent (Francoeur). If one of them goes down or is ineffective, then F-Mart has an opening. If all three succeed, then you can still use F-Mart and ease him into the majors while rotating him through all three OF spots and giving guys some rest.

    (4) Josh Thole, C: Is he Gart Carter? No. But he’s not Mackey Sasser either. The best comparison I’ve heard is Darrin Fletcher – meaning decent stick and okay defense. In an era when the average catcher hits about .250, Thole makes solid contact and has a chance to hit above that. His defense will be key, but he showed me at least that he can improve to the point where he’s average.

    (5) Jenrry Mejia, SP: Saw him pitch last year before he got hurt. Wow! Great fastball. His secondary pitches are a tick behind but he’s 20 and showed good feel for both. Somehow, though, I kept looking at him and thinking Octavio Dotel – a small, compact closer with gas.

    Mets and Keith Law seem to think he can be a front-line starter. I read someone throw out a Rick Porcello comparison which has got to excite many. If he sticks as a starter, then the Mets can have three home-grown starters by the 2011 in Pelfrey, Niese and Mejia. Not bad for a farm system.

    You take that with the fact that the Mets have the 7th pick in the draft and you have something here. Still, the Mets need to be more aggressive in the draft, but that’s a story already beaten to death.

    1. mark4212

      Wow great stuff there. I think you covered a lot. The only disagreement i have is with Thole. If Thole hits near what he has in the minors he’s got a chance to be an all star catcher. When I think of a comparison i think of a Jason Kendell type hitter with at worst a Jorge Posoda type defensive resume.

      If he can improve to be average, like a Paul Lo Duca he has a chance to have a long and successful Major league career. If you look at the Average for every catcher last year the Batting Average was .266, the OBP was .334 and the slugging was .422. This is including all stars like V-Mart and Mauer.

      I like the Jason Kendell comparison because he will have a good BA and OBP while not hitting a lot of HR’s.

      1. MrMustSeeTv

        The Jason Kendell comparison may be Thole’s peak. A classic #2 hitter that shouldn’t hit #2 because he doesn’t have any speed. No power and barely average defense. I see that.

        I think Thole is a better runner than Kendell at this point, though Kendall used to have pretty decent speed before his injury.

        Not a bad comparison.

        Mets have some interesting prospects in the lower minors.

        (1) I really like that they drafted/signed two quality lefty pitchers in Matz and Urbina. I’ve been saying for a while that they really lacked that. I’ve only seen both pitch on the Internet and, unfortunately, won’t see them live unless they pitch in Brooklyn, Binghamton or Buffalo, which won’t happen.

        (2) Jeurys Famila, SP: I like what I’ve read about him. He’s a guy I’m going to keep an eye on this year.

        (3) Cesar Puello and Javier Rodriguez: Toolsy outfielders. Haven’t shown much yet, but each have decent tools.

        (4) Then there is still Ruben Tejada, who could see a cup of coffer this year. Maybe if he makes it on the roster as a utility player in 2011 the Mets won’t need to pay for Cora’s character anymore.

      2. ihob

        I was a little surprised you didn’t list Tejada in your previous assessment. He’d be the last one to be listed, but I think he can provide help in the likely event somebody (Reyes, Castillo, Cora) gets hurt. I like his contact rate, all he needs to do is work on his plate discipline.

      3. NateW

        “The Jason Kendell comparison may be Thole’s peak. ”

        I sure hope not, Kendell has been a miserable hitter for many years…

        Thole can hit .300 when the average catcher struggles to post a .300 obp, so I like his chances of having a decent career, but I don’t see all star potential either. Mostly because someone will always be there who can pop a few homers and they will get the votes.

  2. theperfectgame

    Seems like BA and PP place vastly different weights on proximity to the bigs. To me it’s nice that the different lists include a few different guys. Makes me feel like the system has some decent depth and shape to it. Can’t wait to see who breaks camp with the full season clubs.

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