The Mets Miss Out on Signing Second Round Pick Teddy Stankiewicz

The Mets did not come to an agreement with second round pick Teddy Stankiewicz, a RHP from Ft. Worth Christian HS in Texas. Stankiewicz, who was committed to Arkansas, will instead go to school at Seminole (OK) JC, presumably with the intention to re-enter the 2013 draft.

According to Baseball America, Stankiewicz was the second-highest pick who did not sign and one of eight picks in the first 10 round who did not come to terms. The highest profile player who did not sign was Stanford RHP Mark Appel, the eighth overall pick in the draft, who reportedly turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates, the maximum the team could offer without losing a pick in 2013 to go back to the Farm.

Also, per Baseball America, the Mets, offer to Stankiewicz,  “never came within 10 percent of his $680,400 pick value.”

This is … odd. The Mets had the money to offer Stankiewicz his full pool value and in fact could have offered him up to $185,600 over his slot value without incurring even financial penalties. Here’s the math: the Mets’ total draft allocation was $7,151,400. Without Stankiewicz,  the team had committed $6,285,400 against the cap. Remember, all picks in the top 10 rounds carry allocations. Every dollar spent on a pick in the first 10 rounds counts against the draft cap, and every dollar above $100,000 for a player outside the top 10 rounds also counts against the cap. Again, Stankiewicz’s slot value was $680,400. The Mets were $185,600 under slot on the rest of their picks (if the bonuses report at Baseball America are correct). They could have offered him up to $866,00. And yet, if Baseball America’s reporting is correct, and the Mets did not get within 10% of his value, their max offer was $612,360, or 90% of his $680,400.

So the Mets let a decent prospect go for $68,040? Really? That’s roughly 2% of the $3.5 million the team is paying Jon Rauch and his 0.2 fWAR for his work during the 2012 baseball season

Was Stankiewicz worth it? Lets check his baseball America scouting report: where he was described as ” polished high school pitcher who fits in the third to fifth round on talent, but he may not be signable away from an Arkansas commitment outside of the top two. He flashes two above-average pitches that should improve as he fills out his projectable 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame. His fastball usually sits at 88-92 mph, topping out anywhere from 89-94 on a given day. His slider is very good at times and mediocre at others. He also uses a curveball as a show pitch and has the makings of a changeup.”

Lets be clear: he “FLASHES” two plus pitches, his fastball and slider, but does not have them consistently.

There’s something weird going on here. Plenty of players moved up draft boards in the days leading up to the June draft based on their willingness to sign, but by the end of the process in July, Stankewicz and the Mets had different opinions on his value. Did his asking price change post-draft, or did the Mets mis-read his demands? For example, did he indicate in June that he would be willing to sign for say, $550,000 and then began asking for more as it became clear that the Mets had more money available? Or did the Mets change their own internal valuation of his abilities?

Even so, why were the Mets willing to go to 90% of slot when  they had more than 100% of slot available? Were they trying to make an example of him? That does not make sense. Is their valuation on high school arms that precise to the level of under $70,000? That’s a tough sell.

I am surprised that Stankiewicz did not sign. At this point, I have more questions than answers.

 

 

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