Colon Followup

Yesterday, MetsBlog ran a lengthy piece I wrote about Bartolo Colon.

I wanted to share a few other takes from around the web. All discuss his age, fastballing tendencies, “risk,” and the relatively small commitment in dollars and years the Mets made to Colon.

At Fangraphs, Eno Sarris takes an even-handed view of the contract, calling Bartolo Colon an “unreliable workhorse.” He has some fun with words, “So the Mets got an older pitcher for fewer dollars or fewer years than comparable pitchers on the free agent market. And he’s a reliable risk. Or a firm flyer. Or a predictable plunge. Or a steadfast speculation. Or maybe a cheap, old pitcher.”

Keith Law at ESPN liked it: “The New York Mets‘ deal with Bartolo Colon makes more sense for them now … the two-year, $20 million commitment is so modest by today’s standards that the Mets’ risk is tolerable. … The club could be surprisingly competitive in that case with an improved offense and a deep, mostly young (but 20 percent-old) rotation.”

At Baseball Prospectus, R.J. Anderson also liked it well enough, “Colon joins Chris Young and Curtis Granderson as sensible winter additions… Risk is the one thing worth wondering about. The length and modest money keeps it to this side of a franchise-altering plunge… In the end, Colon is far from a sure thing to make 30 starts, but plopping him in Citi Field with a strong outfield defense and letting him do his thing seems like it should yield good results.”

Jonah Keri at Grantland was a little more circumspect in his Winter Meetings Roundup: “Colon is a mystery. On numbers alone, this looks like a fine deal…The key to Colon’s success was his ability to pound the strike zone: Only three other starters flashed lower walk rates in 2013…. Of course, recent success does not guarantee future success. We’re talking about a 40-year-old pitcher who didn’t throw a single pitch in the big leagues in 2010….At any rate, it’s good to see the Mets and their bamboozled owners spend a little dough this winter, adding Curtis Granderson and now Colon to augment a very thin roster.”

12 comments
kyLE
kyLE

This is a good, low cost, high upside signing that teams in the Met's spot on the win curve make, and makes even more sense when you look at the Harvey situation.  Eno Sarris explained it best, but Colon's obscure path the last 4-5 years creates a greater sense of risk surrounding him, even though he's thrown 500 innings in the past 3 years.  combine the shoulder surgery, hip procedure, suspension, his age, and his fastball heavy pitch selection, and you've got a lot of obscure risk.  This allowed the Mets to pay market value for a guy that pitched like an ace last year, and has gotten stronger every year back from surgery.  Good gamble to replace Harvey. 

Chris Kujawa
Chris Kujawa

No one is going to make a joke about the title?

Joser
Joser

If the Mets could find another Marlon Byrd, preferably at SS or 1B,  then I think this could be a very decent team. 


Also, if the deals don't work out, they don't work out. 4 years for Curty seems like a worthwhile risk to take considering the prices some other guys are getting. And 2 for Colon isn't a back breaker. 


Good to see the Mets spending again. 

Derpy
Derpy

I fully agree with Eno Sarris.  Bartolo Colon scares me.  He could fail, he could be okay, he could be great.  You simply don't know.  He is so old and has thrown so many pitches, and has had such a serious arm injury that you simply don't know.  You cannot reliably predict what he is going to do.  Any direction is equally likely.  I don't like that.  I don't like to gamble.

lahenry57
lahenry57

Both singings are good steps. I want to see them give Ike a chance in the first half next season. He was much improved when he came back from AAA until he got hurt. I would still try to trade Duda and Murphy, acquire a shortstop and first base insurance and improve the bullpen. EY to second makes sense. So far, Sandy is having a good offseason!!!

Jeff Steinberg
Jeff Steinberg

At first, I wasn't pleased with this signing, but after considering it for a few days, I'm changing my opinion. Signing Colon to a short 2 year deal is fair enough especially if its only 20 million. I originally thought this move would limit the Mets spending on other much needed areas, but I think it won't. Seems like the next moves will be adding bullpen arms on 1-2 year deals and signing pitchers to minor league contracts to compete for the 5th starter spot. I'm really hoping the Mets either trade Murphy for depth in the farm or find a package for Wilmer Flores in a deal for a young controllable SS. Sandy needs to make some judicious moves right now.

natew
natew

@Joser Chances are the Mets run through a lot more 2013 Rick Ankiels before finding another 2013 Marlon Byrd.  

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@JoserIf the mets could find another Byrd... The mets have no reason why they haven't won a WS every year under Sandy. 


Problem is it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to hit like that on a player who's basically been run out of baseball and have him put up a career BEST 5 WAR season at 36. 


The player they signed to try to do that is Chris Young.

Sylvan Migdal
Sylvan Migdal

@Derpy  What he gives the Mets is great upside with only a small commitment. The Mets aren't likely to make the playoffs in 2014, so they need to make moves that won't cripple the team with bad contracts in 2016. But if the Mets *are* to make a miracle run this year and snag the second wild card, it'll be because of a guy like Colon pitching like an ace.


A more reliable, healthy, low-upside #4 starter type might give you a pleasant sense of security, but that's not really what the Mets need. If Colon implodes or gets quickly injured, just bring up Montero or Syndergaard or DeGrom — the Mets have the depth to cover it.


This kind of gamble isn't right for all clubs — if you're already a playoff contender like the Nats, you just want someone to eat innings and not be the black hole on the roster that blows it for Strasburg and Harper. But it's perfect for the Mets right now, because it's simply a quick shot of talent for a team that needs it badly.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@lahenry57If Ike isn't traded my leash is Spring Training. If he's hot all thru that... he ears a spot and a 2 week trial... Good for 2 weeks he buys another a good month buys another etc etc... 


To me Duda is a far superior option at first... even though i know fans don't like him.

Derpy
Derpy

@Mark Kelly@Joser Yup, Chris Young has one purpose for the Mets, to turn into prospects.  Either he is really good and gets traded at the deadline or he is really good, turns down a qualifying offer and turns into a draft pick.  Either way that is success.  Of course there is the (big) chance he will just be mediocre/terrible and will give the Mets nothing in return.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@Derpy@Mark Kelly@JoserI wouldn't say BIG chance. I mean worst case is he's just a .5-1 WAR player and mets got the exact value they paid him... 


He needs to put up a 2.5-4 WAR and the mets will reap the rewards, both on field and in the offseason. 


When I'm thinking aobut the offseason it's been pretty good so far. Not finished, but  getting  a Fly ball pitcher, upgrading the OF and potentially having a +++ Defender at all 3 OF position with production from hopefully 2 of the 3 is pretty nice... 


I'm hopeful D'Arnaud shows his potential at the Dish and the mets have 4-5 legitmate bats in the line with Wright, Grandy, Young, Murph and D'Arnaud... Duda is still a sneaky guy i'm thinking has a good year batting 6th with Lagaras and Tejada pulling in the rear. 


IDK maybe i'm just being overly optimistic today