Noah Syndergaard (Thor) Will “Likely” Have ~145 Innings Cap in 2014

 

Syndergaard threw 123.2 innings last year. Taking him to 145 this year, when he turns 22 in August, would be an increase of just 21.2 IP. This is fairly conservative.

 

Syndergaard’s innings by year:
2011: 59
2012: 107 (103.2 regular season + 4 playoffs)
2013: 123.2 (117.2 regular season + 6 playoffs)

Note that Syndergaard only threw 16 more innings in 203 than he did in 2012.
From 2011 to 2012, Syndergaard’s innings increased rose by 48, an increase of 81%. From 2012 to 2013 they rose by 16.67, or  16%.

Lets compare Syndergaard to the Mets’ other big two pitching prospects: Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler with front of the rotation size and fastballs. Coming off heavy workloads in college, in his first professional season in 2011, Harvey threw 135.2 innings, finishing in AA. By 2012, after 110 innings in Buffalo, he was ready for the big leagues, where he threw 59.1 for a total of 169.1 in 2012. Wheeler began 2012 in AA after spending all of 2011 with advanced-A for the Mets and Giants, throwing 115 innings in advanced-A. In 2012, his age 22 season, he tossed 149 innings in double-A and triple-A. Between AAA and the big leagues he threw 168.1 innings last year.

The difference is that Syndergaard should be MLB-ready this year, in his ~145 inning season rather than his 170 max season as Harvery and Wheeler were.

Counting pitcher usage by innings still bothers me. We can do better. Expressing workload in terms of batters faced, or even better, pitches thrown would be more precise. Maybe teams do count in terms of batters or pitches thrown, but express workload publicly in innings for the sake of clarity.

Syndergaard’s batters faced by year:
2011: 238
2012: 439 (420 regular season + 19 playoffs)
2013: 498 (472 + 26)

From 2011 to 2012, Syndergaard faced an extra 201 batters an increase of 84% on his previous year. From 2012 to 2013, he saw 59 more batters an increase of only 13%. He faced fewer batters per inning. In 2012, he saw 4.1 batters per inning. In 2013, it was 4.0.

So, Syndergaard will throw about 150 innings in 2014. That’s not surprising.

 

Other note:
Something else I learned: Syndergaard’s manager on the 2011 Lansing Lugnuts was Mike Redmond, currently of the Marlins.

10 comments
David Gawkowski
David Gawkowski

They can be as conservative as they want, it doesn't mean he's really any less likely to get hurt, that's the frustrating part of all the innings caps. They had it with Harvey, and where did that get them? 

natew
natew

I wouldn't put much stock in the huge increase from 2011 to 2012 as he was in extended spring training for 2+ months before his seasons started.  He also probably threw well more than that the previous year between high school and the GCL.  It's been a conservative track he has been on.  The biggest factor in his innings total (as mentioned) will be how efficient he is, and how many innings those pitches can be stretched over. 

gary99
gary99

What about warmup pitches? Who's counting those? They also create wear & tear on a pitchers arm.

InMyChucks
InMyChucks

@tobyhyde Gotta change to BF or pitches thrown. Can't believe teams haven't employed this yet. Or have they already?

J_Mogilner
J_Mogilner

@tobyhyde all of the sudden allow him to go 6-7 innings. Seems counterintuitive being that they want to set him on an innings limit

J_Mogilner
J_Mogilner

@tobyhyde can you explain how it makes sense to let Thor pitch, say 5-10 minor league games with a 5 inning cap and once he gets to majors..

Daniel Wexler
Daniel Wexler

Slightly, slightly lower than I expected given DePo's earlier comments but about where I thought. Means he will need shortened starts/pen work to get through the entire season. I wonder if Harvey/Wheeler's late season shoulder soreness had anything to do with the decision to be extra strict here.

tobyhyde
tobyhyde

@InMyChucks Dunno if anyone uses BF or pitches thrown by season in minors to monitor work loads

tobyhyde
tobyhyde

@J_Mogilner Well, lets say he mostly works on 100 pitch cts... he could go 6 or 7 innings in a start as long as he's efficient each night

natew
natew

@tobyhyde Rick Peterson was noted as having counts on spring training throwing as well as all minor league throwing... but he was a bit... um, controlling?