This is one of my favorite posts of the year, in which I compare how the major national prospect outlets – ESPN, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, ranked the top Mets prospects. It’s revealing.
There is a little bit of guesswork as different authors rank different numbers of players and have slightly different eligibility rules, which this year only matters for Jeurys Familia. I tried to hew as closely as possible to each author’s intent. For every player beyond the number of players each publication ranked, I assigned that player the next best rank. If Keith Law ranked 15 players for example, to create my average ranking, I assigned every other player a 16. Law ranked 15 guys, Baseball America 30, MLB.com 20 and BP 10. I used Jason Parks’ commenta to separate the next few players after #10 into tiera. He suggested that Matz, Fulmer and Herrera were in play for him at #10; they all got 11s. Everyone else 14s. “Flattening” the back of these lists artificially reduces the combined rank of non-consensus Top 15 players and the variance on their ranking, but I don’t know a fairer way to do it.
|Keith Law (ESPN.com)||Baseball Prospectus||Baseball America||MLB.com||AVG||STD Dev|
- There is complete agreement about the team’s top two prospects: Syndergaard and d’Arnaud.
- After Montero, a consensus #3, there is some tiering. Dom Smith earned rankings between 3-7; barely edging Wilmer Flores. The consistency of Smith’s rankings, nothing as low as the #8 that Flores received from Law, pushed him to #4.
- The standard deviation on the rankings of consensus guys 5-9 (Flores, Nimmo, Plawecki and Puello) are all really tightly bunched.
- There’s “chaos” at #10 as each author preferred a different player in that spot with Jason Parks making the boldest leap for Marcos Molina, a young hard-throwing RHP. This is one of the boldest selections for a Mets Top 10 in years. While I don’t see Molina as a Top 10 guy yet (too much risk/unknown), I applaud the thought process.
- Amed Rosario is a consensus top-10 outside of MLB.com, bringing down his overall rank and pushing his variance up.
- I’m going to keep pushing Steven Matz, who missed ESPN and MLB’s lists.
- The agreement on Michael Fulmer – at 11-14 in all four rankings is interesting.