A Composite Mets Top Prospect Ranking

This is one of my favorite posts of the year, in which I compare how the major national prospect outlets – ESPN, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, ranked the top Mets prospects. It’s revealing.

There is a little bit of guesswork as different authors rank different numbers of players and have slightly different eligibility rules, which this year only matters for Jeurys Familia. I tried to hew as closely as possible to each author’s intent. For every player beyond the number of players each publication ranked, I assigned that player the next best rank. If Keith Law ranked 15 players for example, to create my average ranking, I assigned every other player a 16. Law ranked 15 guys, Baseball America 30, MLB.com 20 and BP 10. I used Jason Parks’ commenta to separate the next few players after #10 into tiera. He suggested that Matz, Fulmer and Herrera were in play for him at #10; they all got 11s. Everyone else 14s. “Flattening” the back of these lists artificially reduces the combined rank of non-consensus Top 15 players and the variance on their ranking, but I don’t know a fairer way to do it.

Keith Law (ESPN.com)Baseball ProspectusBaseball AmericaMLB.comAVGSTD Dev
Thor11111.00.00
Travis dArnaud22222.00.00
Rafael Montero44333.50.58
Dominic Smith36475.01.83
Wilmer Flores83645.32.22
Brandon Nimmo59856.82.06
Kevin Plawecki685107.32.22
Cesar Puello971168.32.22
Dilson Herrera71113910.02.58
Gavin Cecchini11149810.52.65
Amed Rosario10572110.87.14
Michael Fulmer1411141313.01.41
Jacob deGrom1314101914.03.74
Cory Mazzoni1614161214.51.91
Gabriel Ynoa1214151814.82.50
Jeurys Familia1614181114.82.99
Vic Black1614171415.31.50
Steven Matz1614122115.83.86
Domingo Tapia1514191616.02.16
Luia Mateo1614221516.83.59
Marcos Molina1610312119.58.89

Notes

  • There is complete agreement about the team’s top two prospects: Syndergaard and d’Arnaud.
  • After Montero, a consensus #3, there is some tiering. Dom Smith earned rankings between 3-7; barely edging Wilmer Flores. The consistency of Smith’s rankings, nothing as low as the #8 that Flores received from Law, pushed him to #4.
  • The standard deviation on the rankings of consensus guys 5-9 (Flores, Nimmo, Plawecki and Puello) are all really tightly bunched.
  • There’s “chaos” at #10 as each author preferred a different player in that spot with Jason Parks making the boldest leap for Marcos Molina, a young hard-throwing RHP. This is one of the boldest selections for a Mets Top 10 in years. While I don’t see Molina as a Top 10 guy yet (too much risk/unknown), I applaud the thought process.
  • Amed Rosario is a consensus top-10 outside of MLB.com, bringing down his overall rank and pushing his variance up.
  • I’m going to keep pushing Steven Matz, who missed ESPN and MLB’s lists.
  • The agreement on Michael Fulmer – at 11-14 in all four rankings is interesting.
15 comments
metjetnet
metjetnet

I don't really care where they're ranked. I just want to know where they're headed for the season & how fas or slow a track they're on. THEN we'll know how they've fared, and how soon until they hit Flushing.

pj1990
pj1990

I didn't think MLB was posting the 2014 top 20 prospects until march.  I like the detail in this list though really gives a scope of the major entities opinions on the Mets system

Avery Decker
Avery Decker

I strongly agree with you on Matz. If he can stay healthy, he is definitely a force to be reckoned with. A big lefty with a mid 90's fastball is scary. He was seen as someone who could move through the system quick when drafted, even coming from HS. I can really see him moving to the front of this systems prospect rankings as D'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Flores, and Montero move their way out of the prospect classification.

Robby Johnson
Robby Johnson

Really awesome list.  Thanks for throwing this together.

Stephen Guilbert
Stephen Guilbert

Great compilation, Toby. Thanks for all of your time putting this together. 

1metfan
1metfan

This list looks pretty good. Time will tell if and when how many pan out. It seems to me though that the Mets have some nice talent for a change. This read is encouraging.

Robert Yuricic
Robert Yuricic

I have a dumb questions.  What is Thor at the top of the list?  Does it stand for something?

John Finnerty
John Finnerty

Cool post.  Why not include John Sickels list as well?

Toby Hyde
Toby Hyde moderator

@pj1990  The MLB list includes comments about each player's 2013 season, but it's labeled 2013. If they put out a second list, that feels like cheating... 

ApM
ApM

 I don'e know if this is a joke or not, but Thor is Syndergaard's nickname. So Noah Syndergaard is at the top of the list.

Toby Hyde
Toby Hyde moderator

@John Finnerty  I don't regard Sickels' work on a tier, which has no original research as far as I can tell, with the four I used in the post. 

Robert Yuricic
Robert Yuricic

@ApM  Of course...I think I need more coffee.  Thanks