These two begin a quartet that is far away with big upside. These guys have a plus fastball, or plus power, but they’re years away and the variance around their potential outcomes is very high.
#15 – SS German Rosario
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 170 lbs
Acquired: NDFA 7/2/12
Born: 11/20/95 (Santo Domingo Centro, DR)
2012 Rank: NA | Stats: NA
Why Ranked Here: The Mets paid Rosario $1.75 million, the team’s largest bonus for an international amateur, to sign out of the Dominican Republic.
This one is all about projection and patience. Rosario is unlikely to be in the big leagues for years. The Mets think he is true shortstop with an impact bat including some raw power now. Minor league instructors who saw him play at the team’s Domincan complex came away universally impressed, as they should considering his price tag.
However, other teams’ assessment of Rosario in the scouting period was less charitable. Baseball America called him potentially the “most divisive player in Latin America” because teams were concerned about his uppercut swing and the potential to fill out, move off of shortstop and be relegated to a corner outfield spot.
Rosario is one of the farmhands I am most looking forward to seeing play this year.
2012: Signed with the Mets.
Dr. Pangloss Says: All-Star
Debbie Downer Says: Juan Lagares
Projected 2013 Start: Extended Spring Training then the Gulf Coast League
MLB Arrival: 2018
#16 – RHP Steven Matz
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 192 lbs
Acquired: 2nd rd ’09 (Ward Melville HS)
Born: 5/29/91 (Stony Brook, NY)
2012 Rank: NR | Stats
Why Ranked Here: He threw in the mid 90s in 2012 and touched 98. From the left side, that’s a Top 20 guy in any system, even with his injury problems. Savannah Pitching Coach Frank Viola was impressed by Matz’s hard, tight curveball in spring training as well. Matz’s changeup is his third pitch.
Now the bad. Matz returns to the rankings after a one-year hiatus thanks to a brief window of health in 2012 in which he showed tantalizing velocity which was even better than his pre-Tommy John surgery form. Matz had peaked at #14 in 2010, and slipped to #24 in 2011. Matz was diagnosed with a torn UCL in 2010. Various rehab setbacks kept him out all of 2011. Even in 2012, Matz’s season ended early, after just six starts in the Appalachian League with shoulder tendonitis. His health is a major, major red flag.
2012: Matz had too much velocity for Appalachian League hitters, fanning 29% of the batters he faced. However, the years of rehab took their toll on him. He walked 14% of his opposing hitters. Beyond that, he was dealing with game situations for the first time since high school in 2009, that’s a relatively long time away from the game.
Dr. Pangloss Says: I’ll take a top of the rotation starter here.
Debbie Downer Says: I’ll take the safe bet: injuries derail Matz before the big leagues. Even at a less pessimistic level, since he has shown no ability to pitch through a full-season, the bullpen might be his final destination.
Projected 2013 Start: Savannah
MLB Arrival: 2016