#32 – 3B/1B Stefan Welch

Bats/Throws: L/R

Height/Weight: 6’4″, 190 lbs

Acquired: NDFA (1/19/05)

Born: 8/12/88 (Adelaide, Aus)

Why Ranked Here: The Australian Welch has shown gap power from a line drive stroke and an tall thin frame as a teenager. Listed at 6’4” and 192 lbs, he has more than enough room to fill out. Welch has also made lots of contact, striking out in only 14% of his plate appearances. The eight triples hint at Welch’s athletic ability.

2008: He spent two thirds of his time at thirdbase, and one third at first.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Welch’s youth, contact ability and burgeoning power portend well that he could hit enough to hold down a big league job at any of the four corners.

On the Flipside: If Welch shifts to firstbase fulltime, the offensive requirements for a starter at the position grow significantly and there are reasonable questions about whether Welch will develop the power for the position. In 2008, Welch walked roughly once for every four strikeouts so he will need to work deeper counts as he matures.

Projected 2009 Start: Savannah

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There are 8 comments

  1. ihob419

    Trend 1 – After ten players listed not a single player so far has been listed above St. Lucie. With just one that is projected to start the season at Binghamton in Toby’s opinion.

    Trend 2 – None of the position players thus far exhibit true HR power, with maybe the exception of Welch having a chance at

    Trend 3 – The majority of the pitchers do not exhibit above avg. fastballs.

    Trend 4 – All six players who were aquired through the draft were within the past two drafts

    Trend 5 – I like numbered lists either in ascending or descending order.

    Trend 6 – Again the vast majority of the pitchers appear to be heading to the bullpen if they make it to the majors at all.

    Trend 7 – The majority of the players appear to be older than their peers in their perspective leagues.

    There are other smaller trends I’ve noticed but too minuscule to discuss. I understand these are prospect 41-32 in Toby’s eyes so there is a lot of potential for the younger players to develop even further into the Dr. Pangloss view (as we all hope and pray for) but end up being minor leaguers for their entire careers.

    Of the 10 players listed I had very high hopes for Duda coming into ’08 unfortunately he was not able to adjust. Heading into ’09 I’m particularly interested to see how Lagares, Aldama, Ramirez, Lutz, Allan & Welch progress, which I’m sure will increase as the list comes along further.

    I absolutely love this Toby. I’d also like to make a suggestion/request. When this is all over could you maybe make a list of 3 top prospects at each position? I know this could be difficult with the way the Mets move some players around to figure out where they fit best, but if I didn’t trust your judgement I wouldn’t be reading or posting on this site.

    1. viktor06

      Eh.

      “Trend 1 – After ten players listed not a single player so far has been listed above St. Lucie. With just one that is projected to start the season at Binghamton in Toby’s opinion.”
      Our AAA team is filled with backup MLB players and the AA prospects are either better or not really prospects anymore.

      “Trend 2 – None of the position players thus far exhibit true HR power, with maybe the exception of Welch having a chance at ”
      How many hitters in lower minors exhibit true HR power?

      “Trend 3 – The majority of the pitchers do not exhibit above avg. fastballs.”
      How many pitchers in lower minor league exhibit above avg fastballs?

      “Trend 6 – Again the vast majority of the pitchers appear to be heading to the bullpen if they make it to the majors at all.”

      Not even A’s or Rangers have a system that deep to have prospects in the 30-40 range projected for starting job.

      “Trend 7 – The majority of the players appear to be older than their peers in their perspective leagues.”

      Uhh, most of the guys listed so far are either teenagers or recently drafted. The only one behind is Lutz, and thats because of injuries.

      1. Displaced Mets Fan

        More significantly than all of that is they are prospects 32-41, not 1-10. If there weren’t flaws with them, or they weren’t young, or…. they would be ranked higher.

      2. ihob419

        I was just stating obvious things and listing them. I was not trying to say the 32-41 are supposed to be better, I understand that and why they are ranked where they are. It was just a list of things I’ve been noticing and I’m going to continue to track it as the list goes on. See if the same trends continue. It was basically a note for me to go back to later on and see what Omar is trying to build towards based on the new ballpark the Mets are going into and the direction of major league baseball as a whole.

  2. Displaced Mets Fan

    Toby — born in 98, not 88.

    I like that Welch and Lutz and ranked near each other — I find them to be similar in some ways and have some similar upside….

  3. troubleman

    looks like he needs work defensively to stick at 3rd. Wonder if he doenst have the speed for a corner outfielder or they just had other guys in Kingsport they wanted to see….

    Toby you never did a Kingsport review… Is that still in the plans?

    1. Toby Hyde

      I never did do a full K-Mets review. Unfortunately, I ran out of time and energy in the fall….

      Maybe I’ll do a very quick one after the prospect series is done just for kicks….

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