A Composite Mets Top Prospect Ranking

This is one of my favorite posts of the year, in which I compare how the major national prospect outlets – ESPN, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, ranked the top Mets prospects. It’s revealing.

There is a little bit of guesswork as different authors rank different numbers of players and have slightly different eligibility rules, which this year only matters for Jeurys Familia. I tried to hew as closely as possible to each author’s intent. For every player beyond the number of players each publication ranked, I assigned that player the next best rank. If Keith Law ranked 15 players for example, to create my average ranking, I assigned every other player a 16. Law ranked 15 guys, Baseball America 30, MLB.com 20 and BP 10. I used Jason Parks’ commenta to separate the next few players after #10 into tiera. He suggested that Matz, Fulmer and Herrera were in play for him at #10; they all got 11s. Everyone else 14s. “Flattening” the back of these lists artificially reduces the combined rank of non-consensus Top 15 players and the variance on their ranking, but I don’t know a fairer way to do it.

[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;Keith Law (ESPN.com);Baseball Prospectus;Baseball America;MLB.com;AVG;STD Dev
Thor;1;1;1;1;1.0;0.00
Travis dArnaud;2;2;2;2;2.0;0.00
Rafael Montero;4;4;3;3;3.5;0.58
Dominic Smith;3;6;4;7;5.0;1.83
Wilmer Flores;8;3;6;4;5.3;2.22
Brandon Nimmo;5;9;8;5;6.8;2.06
Kevin Plawecki;6;8;5;10;7.3;2.22
Cesar Puello;9;7;11;6;8.3;2.22
Dilson Herrera;7;11;13;9;10.0;2.58
Gavin Cecchini;11;14;9;8;10.5;2.65
Amed Rosario;10;5;7;21;10.8;7.14
Michael Fulmer;14;11;14;13;13.0;1.41
Jacob deGrom;13;14;10;19;14.0;3.74
Cory Mazzoni;16;14;16;12;14.5;1.91
Gabriel Ynoa;12;14;15;18;14.8;2.50
Jeurys Familia;16;14;18;11;14.8;2.99
Vic Black;16;14;17;14;15.3;1.50
Steven Matz;16;14;12;21;15.8;3.86
Domingo Tapia;15;14;19;16;16.0;2.16
Luia Mateo;16;14;22;15;16.8;3.59
Marcos Molina;16;10;31;21;19.5;8.89
[/sny-table]

Notes

  • There is complete agreement about the team’s top two prospects: Syndergaard and d’Arnaud.
  • After Montero, a consensus #3, there is some tiering. Dom Smith earned rankings between 3-7; barely edging Wilmer Flores. The consistency of Smith’s rankings, nothing as low as the #8 that Flores received from Law, pushed him to #4.
  • The standard deviation on the rankings of consensus guys 5-9 (Flores, Nimmo, Plawecki and Puello) are all really tightly bunched.
  • There’s “chaos” at #10 as each author preferred a different player in that spot with Jason Parks making the boldest leap for Marcos Molina, a young hard-throwing RHP. This is one of the boldest selections for a Mets Top 10 in years. While I don’t see Molina as a Top 10 guy yet (too much risk/unknown), I applaud the thought process.
  • Amed Rosario is a consensus top-10 outside of MLB.com, bringing down his overall rank and pushing his variance up.
  • I’m going to keep pushing Steven Matz, who missed ESPN and MLB’s lists.
  • The agreement on Michael Fulmer – at 11-14 in all four rankings is interesting.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s