A Mets Top 40 at HBT

Pat Andriola at the Hardball Times has written up a Mets Top-40 Prospects list.  It’s very statistically based, but also very coherent with a top-20 that makes loads of sense.

His top 10 goes:

1. Martinez

2. Davis

3. Mejia

4. Flores

5. Niese

6. Holt

7. Havens

8.Familia

9. Thole

10. Tejada

There are 14 comments

  1. NickM

    i like his rankings and think they are the best to come out yet.. if i had to critique it though:

    -mejia over davis for me.
    -allen in the top 10.
    -niesen should be in the top 20.
    -stoner at 25? nah..
    -santomauro should have squeeked on there somehow.

  2. theperfectgame

    I liked THT a lot more when the had up-to-date Win Shares statistics. That info is tough to find and even tougher to calculate on your own.

  3. Obama_MetFan

    Great top 14 i just loved it , he missed my guy J-Rod but he included my other guy N-Zap , personally i dont think Matz should be on the list because he hasnt throw a single pitch as a pro and dont think Lutz is a top 15 , i agree with my buddy Nick about Allen in the top 10 but at the same time theres no space in the top 10 and i think that Pena should be between 20 and 25 not in the 30s !

    1. NickM

      Matz hasn’t thrown a pitch but hes still looked at as the 2nd best lefty starter in the system. Im quite sure you will find a bunch of other guys from this year’s draft (the early round selections) who signed but didnt play but are in a team’s top 15 prospect list going into next year.

  4. acerimusdux

    Pretty good top 20, though I think Niesen gets pretty underrated. After Niesen at 23, though, there are a few things there which don’t seem quite right. Having guys like Harris and Valdespin over Pena just doesn’t seem right to me. And then Fuller ahead of Carr. I realize Tobi kind of started this with Fuller at #37 in his preseason list, but I question whether he really belongs in the top 40. I might have rather found room for Ratliff or Duda. Or if you like a polished lower ceiling pitcher, Shaw or Kaplan.

    1. NateW

      I think Fuller has some potential as a set up man. As starters most of these guys below Familia probably aren’t much to speak of anyway. I’ve seen two of Fullers starts this year, and he seems to have more of a relievers demeanor and attitude. Plus his motion worries me if he’s pitching that many innings.

      Not sure that’s making a case for him to be in the top 40, but I do see him and Beaulac as potential quality relievers while many of the others seem more like organizational arms.

  5. Obama_MetFan

    Ike Davis DNP today for USA against Venezuela , Bowman play for Canada and was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI , Malo was 0 for 3 as they beat south korea .

  6. NickM

    Stoner made his major league debut tonight, a solid inning of work.. hit 90 mph on the gun once and showed a slowww curve that was 67-71 mph.

  7. T Pac

    Well, I’m surprised at so much positive feedback to the list — I don’t agree with many of the rankings. Like I’ve always said, these are all opinions about projecting the future so, generally speaking, there’s not really a “right” or “wrong” with any of these lists, as long as you use sound logic. But some of the rankings on his list don’t make much sense to me.

    If Ike Davis is #2, I don’t understand how Nieuwenhuis can be #11 — they seem like fairly similar prospects. I agree Davis is the better prospect, but I don’t think you can have such a big gap between them. Same thing with Zach Lutz and Lucas Duda, who appear to be fairly similar.

    The biggest gripe I have is ranking Alonzo Harris over Francisco Pena, and significantly higher, which seems pretty crazy to me. Can’t see Harris over Richard Lucas, either.

    There are other disagreements I have, but can at least see the rationale for — I think Thole and especially Carson and Valdespin are too high, and Niesen, Carr and Aderlin Rodriguez are too low. But , at the same time, I can understand their placements.

    1. acerimusdux

      Nice comment.

      I really agree with everything you said. I don’t mind Davis at #2, I have him at #3, and I think he has a much more substantial track record (going back to college) over Nieuwenhuis. But can’t really find a good reason for Thole ahead of Nieuwenhuis, as there’s just a huge difference there in ceiling and not really much advantage for Thole in accomplishment. If he were a good defensive catcher, you could argue some positional value, but he’s not, and Kirk can play CF.

      Lutz I think is over Duda on positional value, but Duda had almost the same numbers (including peripherals) a level higher at the same age, has a bit more power upside, and has managed to stay on the field for over 1000 PA over the last 2 seasons.

      And I’ve only actually seen the guys at St. Lucie and higher, but from what I’ve heard, Harris is one of those speed guys who is putting up power numbers in rookie ball partly due to the bad defense (though still with some decent upside), and Valdespin by most accounts has a pretty small frame without too much upside, and has had makeup/behavavioral issues as well. I don’t think I’d rank Hector Pellot higher than about 40, but for a guy born the same year as Valdespin, he’s pretty much on another planet as far as having the upside potential, physical development, skills development, and emotional development to be a pro player. I’m not sure why Valdespin should even be within 20 spots of Pellot.

      I think when Toby said, it’s “very statistically based”, part of what I think he might have meant was some people are maybe getting a bit too excited over stats in rookie ball, which usually mean squat. But, I’m seeing a lot of lists with the same flaws.

      .

      1. Toby Hyde

        re: accomplishment: Thole finished at .328/.395/.422 in the Eastern League or 2nd in batting and 3rd in OBP. That’s some kind of accomplishment. Nieuwenhuis didn’t really distinguish himself at all before August.

  8. Silver Surfer

    These lists make for interesting discussions. All of these prospects are young and have great potential. We don’t have a crystal ball so who knows what happens with these guys. Remember, Brien Taylor and countless other can’t miss prospects. I really like the development of Kyle Allen, J Familia and R Carson. Beaulac is one to continue to keep an eye on also. I’d like to see Sean Ratliff and Josh Satin make one or more of these lists from the experts. But, Satin and Ratliff probably won’t make believers out of the experts until they can successfully produce at AA and AAA.

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