BP: Top Ten Mets Prospects (with a Marcos Molina Surprise)

baseball prospectus logoJason Parks and his merry crew at Baseball Prospectus are out with their Top 10 Mets Prospects for 2014. Please go read their writeups as they are perhaps the most detailed in the industry.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard
2. C Travis d’Arnaud
3. 3B Wilmer Flores
4. RHP Rafael Montero
5. SS Amed Rosario
6. 1B Dominic Smith
7. OF Cesar Puello
8. C Kevin Plawecki
9. CF Brandon Nimmo
10. RHP Marcos Molina


The news here is Marcos Molina slipping into the Top 10 instead of a guy like Steven Matz. Molina is 6’3″, 190 and Parks loves him.

His strengths: “Plus-plus athlete; physically projectable; fast-twitch; big arm strength; very quick arm; routinely worked 91-96 in the GCL; good feel for filling up the zone; turns over a promising changeup; excellent late action on the pitch; commands it; slurvy breaking ball shows some bat-missing potential; slower slider action; highly competitive on/off the mound”

Prospects on the Rise
1. RHP Michael Fulmer
2. RHP Casey Meisner
3. SS Luis Guillorme

Factors on the Farm (Potential MLB Contributors in ’14)
1. RHP Vic Black
2. LHP Jack Leathersich
3. RHP Jake deGrom

A Parting Thought: This is a very good farm system that will take a hit with likely major-league promotions for their top four prospects, but the strong depth coming out of short-season ball could keep the Mets in the top-10 farm discussion for the foreseeable future.


Was floored to see Molina. Never heard of the kid, but that's a good thing to have all these names. Parks in the comments was really praising the kid, saying he's a fierce competitor and super athlete.


"C noah syndergaard, RHP TDA" Seems legit 

Daniel Wexler
Daniel Wexler

Parks says Flexen is interesting with mid-rotation upside.

Daniel Wexler
Daniel Wexler

On Smith compared to Lyle Overbay (suggested by a reader, not Parks):

Quote:Smith could have more than just an acceptable glove; he's a plus defender. But the offensive profile (Overbay) isn't far off. Smith will arrive younger and has more ceiling, but good average/OBP with big doubles pop sounds about right.

Overbay? I hope not.

Daniel Wexler
Daniel Wexler

Interesting how none of the experts are that high on Matz while Toby seemingly is and Mets fans are (in some case to over the top levels). Not being a downer but I find it hard to believe the Mets system will be in the top 10 next year barring some really strong "luck" given the fact the following guys have legit shot at being ineligible-1)Syndergaard

2)Travis d'Arnaud

3) Rafael Montero

4) Wilmer Flores

5) Cesar Puello

15) Vic Black

16) Jacob deGrom

17) Jeurys Familia

18) Cory Mazzoni

21) MDD

23) Jeffrey Walters

24) Gonzalez Germen

31) Erik Goeddel

35) Wilfredo Tovar

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

Best part of this entire post:

"but the strong depth coming out of short-season ball could keep the Mets in the top-10 farm discussion for the foreseeable future."


@Daniel Wexler  Have to imagine that's a little light. Overbay was 280/360/450 in his prime, i would imagine the average and obp would certainly be a bit better and you hope for more power.

Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly

@ApM @Daniel WexlerYou hope he turns out to be anything.. I mean Ike davis was a 1st round pick also... 

I have more faith in a more polished guy like Smith, but lets not get ahead of ourselves and start expecting MLB All-Star numbers from a guy who played Short Season ball and is 2-4 years away. 

As a whole first basemen in the majors hit:

254./332/.430 so a .280/.360/.450 would place him 48 OPS pts higher than the 2013 league average 1st baseman... I'd comfortably put Overbay as the Floor for Smith and  ceiling hope for a John Olerud type or better Ceiling. That could change if his Power develops.


@Mark Kelly @ApM@Daniel Wexler Isn't the floor for Smith, position aside, Lastings Milledge?  Or worse?  As a refresher, in full season A ball as a 19 year old, Milledge hit .340/.401/.580 in 2004.  By 2006 he was the #9 prospect in all of baseball.

And he ended up doing nothing.  Maybe Smith has a better head on his shoulders or whatever supposedly sidetracked Milledge, but ya never know.  I'll be rooting for him, but he's a LONG way away.