Mid-Season Top 41 Review Part 7: 6-10

Ok, now that we’re past the trade deadline, it’s time to finish my midseason review of my pre-season Top 41 Mets prospects.  This will be the second-to-last installment.  Ideally, players 1-5 will run Tuesday.  Then Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the guys who at this point have likely hopped into the Top 41.

Part 6 on players ranked 11-15 is here.  Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here.  Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here.  Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here.  Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here.   Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.

 

#6 – 2B Reese Havens
What I thought: Havens could be a future All-Star at second base for his power and patience.
Reality: He’s missed a lot of time again.  The 24-year old started the season a month and a half late, as he recovered from off-season surgery to shave down a rib, and then he missed nearly another month with a lower back strain which the Mets claim was unrelated.  It’s hard to judge Havens’ on-field performance separately from the time he’s missed.  Is he striking out in 28% of his AA plate appearances because his back was hurting, or because that’s now the player he is?  Same question about the drop in his extra-base hit rate?

For a while, it looked like Havens was the Mets best option to play second base in a post-Luis Castillo world.  Well, the team now has a glut of options over various time horizons including Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ruben Tejada and Havens’ own double-play partner, Jordany Valdepsin who Havens will have to compete against if he can ever stay healthy.
Stock:  Down
Basic

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
2010 FSL 14 57 16 2 1 3 8 18 .281 .369 .509
2010 EL 18 68 23 2 1 6 6 15 .338 .400 .662
Total 32 125 39 4 2 9 14 33 .312 .386 .592
2011 AA 31 117 30 6 1 2 13 37 .256 .333 .376

Advanced

XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2010 FSL 9.2 27.7 12.3 4.6 .361
2010 EL 12.0 20.0 8.0 8.0 .362
Total 10.7 23.6 10.0 6.4 .361
2011 AA 6.8 28.0 9.8 1.5 .354

 


#7 – RF Fernando Martinez
What I thought: I dropped Martinez from #2 to #7 because that seemed right.
Reality: Guess what?  He’s missed significant time to injury.  He’s walking a touch more than he did a year ago, but is hitting for less power in AAA and has been diagnosed with arthritis.  He’s stopped running completely (0 SB/0 Attempts) so it’s all about the bat at this point.
Stock: Down.
Basic

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
2010 AAA 71 257 65 16 0 12 17 65 .253 .317 .455
2010 MLB 7 18 3 0 0 0 1 5 .167 .200 .167
2011 AAA 53 185 47 6 0 7 15 51 .254 .327 .400

Advanced

XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2010 AAA 9.8 22.6 5.9 4.2 .291
2010 MLB 0.0 25.0 5.0 0.0 .214
2011 AAA 6.2 24.4 7.2 3.3 .310

 

 


#8 – 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
What I thought: The powerful Rodriguez was the highest-ceiling bat in the low minors for the Mets.
Reality: Rodriguez has shown power, but raised questions about other areas of his game.  The 13 homers are nothing to scoff at from a 19-year old in a huge ballpark as they’re the second-most by a Gnat, trailing only Sean Ratliff’s 15 dingers in 2009 since 2006.  Still Rodriguez has not made other adjustments and pops too many balls up.  In this respect a .252 BABIP is a product of 1. Bad luck, 2. A spacious ballpark, and 3. Too many pop-ups.

At third, Rodriguez’s agility and arms have been a pleasant surprises.  However, his hands might force him off the position.

Stock: Down, but not by as much as you might think.  He’s still hitting for power.

Basic

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
2010 APP 61 250 78 22 0 13 15 43 .312 .352 .556
2010 SAL 8 30 6 1 0 1 6 10 .200 .333 .333
2010 Total 69 280 84 23 0 14 21 53 .300 .350 .532
2011 SAL 101 394 88 18 1 13 28 86 .223 .278 .373

Advanced

XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2010 APP 13.1 16.1 5.6 4.9 .333
2010 SAL 5.1 25.6 15.4 2.6 .238
2010 Total 12.1 17.3 6.9 4.6 .324
2011 SAL 7.4 20.0 6.5 3.0 .252

 

 


#9 – OF Lucas Duda
What I thought: Duda would have a chance to prove that his AAA slugging would play in the big leagues.
Reality: Carlos Beltran was better and healthier than I certainly thought was likely, but now Duda has a few months to play himself into a big league role.  By wOBA, which assigns value-per plate appearance, Duda has already been the 7th most valuable Mets hitter, and the fourth-best under contract for 2012 once Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Scott Hairston have been removed.
Stock: Up.  Graduated.  He’s a big leaguer now!
Basic

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
2010 AA 45 161 46 17 0 6 29 27 .286 .411 .503
2010 AAA 70 264 83 23 2 17 31 57 .314 .389 .610
2010 MLB 29 84 17 6 0 4 6 22 .202 .261 .417
2010 Total 144 509 146 46 2 27 66 106 .287 .376 .544
2011 AAA 38 129 39 8 0 10 23 27 .302 .414 .597
2011 MLB 52 134 36 11 3 2 15 21 .269 .340 .440

Advanced

XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP
2010 AA 11.7 13.7 14.7 3.0 .310
2010 AAA 14.1 19.1 10.4 5.7 .346
2010 MLB 10.9 23.9 6.5 4.3 .220
2010 Total 12.8 18.1 11.2 4.6 .314
2011 AAA 11.5 17.2 14.6 6.4 .309
2011 MLB 10.5 13.7 9.8 1.3 .298

 


#10 – RHP Jeurys Familia
What I thought: I liked that Familia was a big guy who threw hard and had a good August in 2010.
Reality: The 21-year old Familia improved his delivery, and improved his fastball command and slider and graduated from the Florida State League in May after dominating the League through six starts.  Scouts were impressed, but all ranked him behind Matt Harvey.  In AA, despite striking out well over a batter an inning, his walk rate has climbed back up to dangerous territory 4 BB/9 IP, and he’s been susceptible to the home run ball, indicating trouble locating in the zone.
Stock: Up.

Basic

ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
10 A+ 5.58 24/24 121 117 87 75 7 74 137
11 A+ 1.49 6/6 36.33 21 7 6 1 8 36
11 AA 3.38 10/10 56 51 27 21 7 25 64

Advanced

BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9
10 A+ 5.5 10.2 1.9 0.5 8.7
11 A+ 2.0 8.9 4.5 0.2 5.2
11 AA 4.0 10.3 2.6 1.1 8.2

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