Project Prospect: The Reality of the Rule Five Draft

Before you get all excited about the Rule Five Draft today, Project Prospect has some sobering numbers on the Rule Five since the eligibility rules were changed in the last CBA.


Results from the 2010 Rule 5 Draft

* The majority of the players selected did not make a MLB roster.

* Of the 19 players drafted, just 3 had positive WAR values.

* More than twice as many picks performed below replacement level than above.

* Scott Diamond (LHP, MIN), who had three good starts and three bad starts, was the most valuable 2010 Rule 5 Draft pick.


Average Rule 5 Pick (since 2007)

The average Rule 5 Draft pick has yielded the following career WAR value:

Median: 0.0 WAR

Mode: 0.0 WAR

Mean: 0.2 WAR


Lest you’ve forgotten, the Mets drafted two players in the 2011 draft.  Pedro Beato was responsible for a -0.3 fWAR, but lasted through the whole season.  Brad Emaus “hit” .162/.262/.162 in 14 games on his way to a -0.1 fWAR before he was designated for assignment on April 19.

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