Top 41: #33 – Erik Goeddel, #34 – Matt den Dekker, #35 – Cory Vaughn, #36 – Logan Verrett

This group of four Mets prospects are all likely to get to the big leagues, but are unlikely to ever be average regulars. Instead, if they make it, it will be in part-time roles, or as middle relievers. All four are 2010 or 2011 college draftees so it’s time for them to produce in the big leagues. All have dealt with injuries on their way through the minors.

 

Goeddel BMets Delivery#33 – RHP Erik Goeddel
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 185 lbs
Acquired: 24th round 2010 (UCLA)
Born: 12/20/88
2013 Rank: NR (2012: #33) | Stats
Why Ranked Here:  The Mets added Goeddel to the 40-mand roster for the 2014 season; 40-mand guys almost always make my Top 41. While 2013 was the first season he survived without injury, he should hold up better in shorter outings out of the bullpen, where his velocity will play up.

As a starter, Goeddel’s velocity has been 89-92 for the most part, although he can reach back for more and touch 95. He’s a four-pitch guy with a curve, slider and changeup. Some nights in Savannah, the curve looked like a big league pitch and some nights the slider looked like a big league offering, but it seemed rare that he had both working at once. Some nights his fastball command was solid, others it was very erratic. According to Jeff Paternostro at Amazin’ Avenue, Goeddel remained fairly inconsistent appearance to appearance this year. Jeff far preferred Goeddel’s curveball to his slider in 2013. This year, he adjusted the grip on his changeup to increase the contrast with the fastball.

Where many young pitchers rush their delivery, and must train themselves to stay back, Goeddel has the reverse issue. He told me that when he feels too slow, he loses tempo and struggles to repeat.
2013:  Goeddel stayed healthy all the way through the 2013 season with AA Binghamton where he posted a 4.37 ERA in a career-high 25 starts over 134 innings. As a starter in AA, he gave up a hit an inning (135) walked 9.9% of opposing batters and struck out 21%. National League pitchers had a 19.9% strikeout and a 7.7% walkd rate in 2013. Eastern League pitchers were similar, fanning 20.1% of opposing batters and walking 9.1%.   Given that Goeddel walks more batters than the average Eastern Leaguer, and the average National Leaguer, I am skeptical that he has the command to work through a linup multiple times as a big league starter.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Good middle reliever, maybe even an 8th inning guy.
Debbie Downer Says: Worse command than average in AA. No better than the last guy in the bullpen.
Projected 2014 Start: AAA Las Vegas
MLB Arrival: 2014 

Recent Statistics
[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]

;ERA;G/GS;IP;H;R;ER;HR;BB;SO;HBP;WP;
11 SAL;3.39;15/13;71.67;58;29;27;5;24;67;1;0;
12 FSL;3.41;22/20;108.33;110;51;41;4;43;98;1;13;
13 EL;4.37;25/25;134;135;72;65;14;58;125;7;10;
[/sny-table]

[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;BB/9;SO/9;SO/BB;HR/9;H/9;R/9;BB%;SO%;HR%;TBF;;
11 SAL;3.0;8.4;2.8;0.6;7.3;3.6;8.2;22.9;1.7;292;;
12 FSL;3.6;8.1;2.3;0.3;9.1;4.2;9.2;21.0;0.9;467;;
13 EL;3.9;8.4;2.2;0.9;9.1;4.8;9.9;21.4;2.4;585;;
[/sny-table]
 

#34 – CF Matt den Dekker
Bats/Throws: 
Left/Left
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205 lbs
Acquired: 5th rd 2010 (Florida)
Born: 8/10/87 (Ft. Lauderdale, FL) 

2013 Rank: 23  (2012: 18 ) | Stats 
Why Ranked Here: He can play centerfield and hit righties. He’s a tick above average as a runner, but gets great jumps in center, and sells out chasing balls so that he should be an above average defender in centerfield.

Den Dekker is already 26 and has never hit lefties in his minor league career. Good breaking balls fool him.
2013: A broken wrist in spring training kept den Dekker out of action until he began rehab in the Florida State League June 17. He returned to AAA on July 1. After showing improvement in AAA over 2012 (lower strikeout rate, better walk rate) the Mets rewarded him with a late-season call up and he made his big league debut on August 29.
Dr. Pangloss Says: I would like him as a fourth outfielder who can go play center and hit righties.
Debbie Downer Says: I would prefer players who do not strike out in 1/3 of their plate appearances.  
Projected 2014 Start: The Mets have three guys on the MLB roster who can play center, so it will take an injury or two for den Dekker to break camp on the big league roster.  
MLB Arrival: 2013. He’ll be back.

 
Recent Statistics
[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;G;AB;H;2B;3B;HR;BB;SO ;AVG;OBP;SLG;
2012 EL;58;238;81;21;4;8;20;64; 340;.397;.563;
2012 IL ;77;295;65;10;4;9;14;90; 220;.256;.373;
2013 PCL;53;179;53;8;4;6;20;46; .296;.366;.486;
2013 MLB;27;58;12;1;0;1;4;23;.207;.270;.276;
[/sny-table]

[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;XBH%;SO%;BB%;HR%;BABIP;1B rate;ISO;
2012 EL;12.3;23.9;7.5;3.0;.429;17.9;.223
2012 IL ;7.3;28.4;4.4;2.8;.279;13.2;.153
2013 PCL;8.9;22.8;9.9;3.0;.364;17.3;.190
2013 MLB;3.2;36.5;6.3;1.6;.324;15.9;.069
[/sny-table]
 

#35 – Cory Vaughn
Bats/Throws:
 Right/Right
Height/Weight:  6’3”, 225 lbs
Acquired: 4th round 2010 (San Diego State)
Born:  5/1/89 (Carmichael, CA)

2013 Rank: #40 (2012 Rank: 32)| Stats
Why Ranked Here: The Mets left Vaughn off the 40-man roster this winter, but I think there’s some a chance that the 25-year-old will make his MLB debut in 2014. He can play either corner and has beat up on left-handed pitching in the minors. That skill set will give him a chance to be a 4th or 5th outfielder on a team comfortable with platoon outfielders.

In 2013, he hit .242/.327/.374 in 198 AB against righties and .344/.403/.578 in 64 AB against lefties. In the last three years, through the full-season minor league levels, he has bashed .296/.401/.528 in 409 PA against lefties and .231/.335/.383 in 1047 PA against righties.

Although he cleaned up in 2013, there’s funk in his setup at the plate, and decent right-handed fastballs beat him regularly.

Six-foot-three, and strong, Vaughn looks the part, and always has.
2013: A strained UCL in his right elbow kept him out of action in double-A from June 2 through August 6. His strikeout rate of 26.5% in AA was his highest at any minor league stop, while his walk rate of 8.2% was his lowest. His .156 isolated slugging percentage was his lowest since Savannah and his 6.8% extra-base hit rate exceeded only Savannah (6.7%), and even at that by only one tenth of a percentage point. For reference, the Eastern League had an extra-base hit rate of 7.2%, a strikeout rate of 20.1% and a walk rate of 9%.

Sent to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time during the season, Vaughn hit .250/.320/.375 in 88 AB over 22 games. And he did so with those persistent platoon splits going .238/.273/.365 in 63 AB vs. RHP.
Dr. Pangloss Says: Useful platoon outfielder.
Debbie Downer Says: AAA Regular
Projected 2014 Start:  AAA Las Vegas
MLB Arrival: Late 2014.

Recent Statistics
[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;G;AB;H;2B;3B;HR;BB;SO;AVG;OBP;SLG;
2012 FSL;126;456;111;25;3;23;65;114;.243;.351;.463;
2013 EL;71;262;70;9;1;10;24;78;.267;.346;.424;
[/sny-table]

[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;XBH%;SO%;BB%;HR%;BABIP;Iso;
2012 FSL;9.5;21.3;12.1;4.3;.274;.219;
2013 EL;6.8;26.4;8.1;3.4;.343;.156;
[/sny-table]

 

 

#36 – Logan Verrett

Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Height/Weight:  6’2”, 180 lbs
Acquired:  3rd rd ’11 (Baylor)
Born: 6/19/90
2013 Rank: #30 (2012: 35) Stats

Why Ranked Here: Big league command and a big league slider. However, Verrett’s fastball is soft (88-90). Righties just don’t generally become big league starters with that kind of below average heat. He shows a four-pitch arsenal with a changeup and curve. The curve is really a show-me pitch that he can use to steal strikes. The changeup could be a MLB average pitch, but it isn’t good enough to off-set his fastball and keep him in a starting role.
2013: In 24 starts for the B-Mets he ran a 4.25 ERA on a 5.3% walk rate, a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 3.6% homerun rate (21 overall). That’s almost one homerun per start. When he challenged AA hitters, they put the ball over the wall.
Dr. Pangloss Says: If he moves to the bullpen, he can find a few more ticks of velocity to get to 92 consistently. That, paired with his slider and command would make him a more viable middle reliever.
Debbie Downer Says:  88-90? That sounds like MLB batting practice
Projected 2014 Start: AAA. The only question is whether the Mets keep him starting, or move him to the bullpen this year.  
MLB Arrival: 2014

Recent Statistics
[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;ERA;G/GS;IP;H;R;ER;HR;BB;SO;HBP;WP;
12 SAL;3.06;11/11;64.67;57;32;22;7;9;67;3;3;
12 FSL;2.09;6/6;38.67;30;11;9;4;4;26;0;2;
Total;2.70;17/17;103.34;87;43;31;11;13;93;3;5;
13 EL;4.25;24/24;146;136;72;69;21;31;132;3;4;
[/sny-table]

[sny-table rowheader=true columnheader=true]
;BB/9;SO/9;SO/BB;HR/9;H/9;R/9;BB%;SO%;HR%;TBF;
12 SAL;1.3;9.3;7.4;1.0;7.9;4.5;3.4;25.3;2.6;265;
12 FSL ;0.9;6.1;6.5;0.9;7.0;2.6;2.7;17.3;2.7;150;
Total ;1.1;8.1;7.2;1.0;7.6;3.7;3.1;22.4;2.7;415;
13 EL;1.9;8.1;4.3;1.3;8.4;4.4;5.3;22.5;3.6;586;
[/sny-table]

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