Top 41 Prospect Review: 20-29

#20 3B Richard Lucas

Why Ranked Here: I liked Lucas’ strength and ability to use the whole field at the plate.  I thought he had a chance to stay at third.

What Happened: The Mets skipped the 21-year old Lucas, coming off a good year in Kingsport, and a so-so few weeks in the NYP, over Savannah (where Jefry Marte was holding down the hot corner) to St. Lucie, where’s he’s struggled.  He just hasn’t made enough contact in the FSL.  However, his ten home runs are good enough for fifth in the League, so he’s hit for some power.  Now, can he make more contact in the second half?

Stock: Down.

10 FSL 81 282 58 6 2 10 22 95 0 3 .206 .280 .348



#21 RHP Eduardo Aldama

Why Ranked Here: He’s flashed a solid average to plus fastball in the Appalachian League last year and the year before in the GCL.

What Happened: The 20-year old has made four appearances in the GCL.  Perhaps he was injured, I’ll have to find out.

Stock: Down.

10 GCL 7.20 4/0 5 5 5 4 0 4 6 7.2 10.8 1.5 0.0

(Note to self: this was a major over-ranking.)



#22 RHP Dillon Gee

Why Ranked Here: Coming into the year, he was a command and control RHP with a chance to find a big league roster spot.

What Happened: The 24-year old has been all over the place at AAA this year, mixing five outings with one or zero earned runs allowed with six in which he’s allowed five or more earned runs.  He’s striking out nearly a batter an inning, but he’s allowing over a hit an inning, and 1.5 HR/9 which illustrates how hittable he’s been when he’s  in the strike zone.  His changeup is his best off-speed pitch along with a fastball that’s mostly upper 80s, below average for a RHP.

Stock: Down.

10 IL 4.77 18/18 103.67 106 61 55 15 26 102 2.3 8.9 3.9 1.3 42.6


#23 LHP Robert Carson

Why Ranked Here: I liked that Carson is a big, loose-limbed LHP with a plus fastball.

What Happened: Like the whole St. Lucie rotation, the 21-year old Carson got off to dreadful start.  In April, he owned a 7.07 ERA.  He fought his way through May and June with a K/BB of 1.9 (42/22) and an ERA of 3.94.  In his most recent two starts in July, however, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA with 12 strikeouts against two walks.  Has he turned the corner?  The Mets think so.

Here’s Mets Pitching Coordinator Rick Waits discussing Carson:

He’s a completely different pitcher than when he was here last year.  He’s more powerful and keeping that good fastball into the seventh and eighth innings.  I saw him throw 94 in the eighth inning the other night [editor: 6/28].  His slider is much improved.  He’s starting to understand how important it is to throw the fastball to both sides of the plate.  He has a tendency to want to cut the fastball in [to righties].  … He’s commanding his fastball better to both sides of the plate.

Stock: Holding.  A few more starts like his last two, and it’ll be up and he’ll finish the year in Binghamton.  I’m pretty dogmatic in demanding the following two numberical indicators from prospects in advanced-A:   a K/9 of 9 and a K/BB of at least 2.5.  If Carson can do that for a month, I’ll believe.

10 FSL 4.17 17/16 86.33 98 42 40 5 33 69 3.4 7.2 2.1 0.5 47.6


#24 3B Aderlin Rodriguez

Why Ranked Here: He was a big bodied international signee with a big bonus  ($600K) and plus bat speed with serious power potential.

What Happened: Three weeks into the Appy League season and he’s slugging .658 with seven home runs as an 18 year old.    That will play.

Stock: UP.  Way UP.

10 APP 20 81 24 7 0 7 6 10 0 0 .296 .341 .642



#25 CF Darrell Cecilini

Why Ranked Here: The Mets loved Ceciliani’s plus speed, average or better arm and gap power.

What Happened: He’s had a monster first three weeks for Brooklyn in the New York Penn League at age 19, which is actually a little young for the league.  Early evidence that he’s adapting: he didn’t draw a walk in his first 11 games, but drew seven in his next 12.

Stock: UP.  UP.

10 NYP 24 93 35 7 5 0 7 14 8 3 .376 .431 .559


#26 2B Alonzo Harris

Why Ranked Here: He showed power and speed from second base last year as a 19-year old in Kingsport. His raw agility gives him above average range at second, but his hands are the weak link in his defensive game.

What Happened: He’s still fast and he still has some pop in his bat, but his .236/.279/.359 line is very disappointing.  He just swings at everything.  The Mets have worked with him on his approach, and now it comes down to Harris putting it into a game, not just some nights, but every at bat, every night.

Stock: Down

10 SAL 79 287 68 13 5 4 15 67 12 6 .237 .279 .359



#27 3B Zach Lutz

Why Ranked Here: Lutz hits when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.

What Happened: Lutz, who turned 24 in June, got off to a great start, hitting .307/.447/.600 in April before slowing down to .196/.317/.353.  He was placed on the AA DL with a left foot fracture on May 25.

Stock: Down.

10 AA 35 126 33 6 0 8 24 36 0 1 .262 .396 .500


#28 LHP Zach Dotson



Why Ranked Here: Physical lefties with potentially plus fastballs are valuable.

What Happened: Dotson hurt his elbow last summer, and while he did not have surgery, had to spend the whole winter rehabbing and missed all of spring training.  He also missed most of extended spring training, so he’s thrown less than most guys one year out of high school.

His third start was much better than his previous two.

Mets pitching coordinator Rick Waits discussed Dotson last week:

“He’s got a really good arm.  He’s gonna be in the 90s.   He’s got a sharp slider right now, it’s just his delivery isn’t consistent right now.  Right now, he’s just learning how to repeat his delivery.  It’s not a matter of arm strength and it’s not a matter of stuff.”

Stock: Up – he’s throwing well and and he’s  healthy.

10 GCL 3.97 3/3 11.33 10 5 5 0 8 11 6.4 8.7 1.4 0.0 50.0



#29 RHP Brant Rustich

Why Ranked Here: I liked that he’s a power pitcher with plus fastball ball and a potentially good slider even though he’s never stayed healthy.  I thought he might shoot up the ranks if he ever stayed healthy.

What Happened: He’s making progress from the stress fracture in his Humerus that ended his 2009 season.

Stock: Down, pending his return to the hill.


There are 14 comments

  1. mark4212

    Hey Toby,

    At the end of this are you going to add in the guys who you think should have been on the top 41 replacing the ones who dropped off? Or a group of guys in consideration?

  2. Toby Hyde

    Yeah, I’ll do something about guys who I missed on from last winter and maybe a few notes on the most recent draftees. I’m not going to “add them in” to create a new list.

  3. theperfectgame

    “He’s had a monster first three weeks for Brooklyn in the New York Penn League at age 19, which is actually a little young for the league.”

    A bit of an undersell, don’t you think? Ceciliani’s the youngest guy on Brooklyn’s roster, more than a full year younger than all but 2 other guys (Yohan Almonte and Juan Centeno), and the 45th-youngest of the league’s 434 non-rehab players.

    The average non-rehab player in the New York-Penn League was born on August 22, 1988, almost 2 full years ahead of Ceciliani’s June 22, 1990 DOB. For kicks, here’s a breakdown of the league by year of birth:

    1992 – 2
    1991 – 15
    1990 – 47 <– including Ceciliani
    1989 – 88
    1988 – 144
    1987 – 99
    1986 – 29
    1985 – 8
    1984 – 2

    And just because I already put together the data, the average non-Brooklyn pitcher in the NYP league (i.e. the pool of Ceciliani's potential opposing pitchers) was born on July 26, 1988, meaning that on average, Ceciliani is facing pitchers who are 23 months his senior.

  4. acerimusdux

    I agree with most of these comments.

    Richard Lucas – big strong kid, thick lower half. Has some potential, good raw power, but at the plate, he reminds me a bit of Francisco Pena last year. He’s over-matched. And he’s two years older than Pena was. Walk rate at least is a bit better than Pena’s was, but he’s striking out more as well, with no more XBH: 6.9% BB, 30.2% SO, 5.7% XBH. Looks fringy for now. Maybe on the edge of a top 40.

    Aldama – I believe there was some kind of injury there, not sure what it was. Probably pretty fringy even if healthy.

    Dillon Gee – Gee has a decent curve now, as well as the change-up. If he could sit up around 90 mph more consistently, I think he’s actually be a pretty good back end SP. But I think the problem is the velocity. Looking at his splits, he’s looked good over the last 2 years only through the 4th inning. I suspect he’s not holding his velocity past then. When he dips to 85-87, and has to pitch off the secondary stuff, he has to be too fine with his location to expect to succeed too often. Buffalo radio broadcasters claim the velocity is up the last few starts, and there’s enough repertoire, command and pitchability there for me to still maybe like him somewhere near top 30, but he’s still most likely a fringy #5 SP at this point.

    Carson – the slider has improved some, and it’s got some good late break, but not a lot of depth either. His command lately has been the best of the St. Lucie power arms though, and I like his mound presence, athleticism, works quick, very nice pickoff move. And of course a power lefty sitting around 92 is always intriguing. Could maybe be sort of a left handed Parnell in the pen at some point.

    Aderlin – very intriguing so far, though I’m reluctant to get too excited about GCL numbers. I’d love to hear more scouting.

    Ceciliani – looks like a nice break out. My only question, if he’s this good, is why didn’t they give him a look in Savannah earlier in the year? Has to be a top 20 guy if this continues.

    A. Harris – Not a bad age for SAL at 20, but 4.8% BB, 21.5% SO, and 7.1% xbh needs to improve. Still on the radar if you think he can stick at 2B. Maybe with Lucas on the edge of a top 40.

    Lutz – I thought his stock was going to be up until he was hurt yet again. I agree you have to drop him, but probably still top 40 for what he can do when healthy.

    Dotson – very intriguing. I’ve noticed he’s not getting hit much either, but needs to cut down the walks.

    Rustich – another guy who is never healthy. well see how well he pitches now that he’s back in action.

  5. adropofvenom

    Wouldn’t most of Gee’s struggles be related to poor luck? Everything in the peripherals seems to be promising in AAA, a strikeout an inning, an excellent K/BB, ect. His FIP is 3.96, and his luck normalized stats on minorleague splits drops that down even further to 3.23.

    Something tells me, you wouldn’t see his stock as being down if he wasn’t so unlucky.

  6. NickM

    re: Gee – Yeah the general peripherals are great, except maybe the HR-rate, but I would imagine that would almost certainly come down in Citi Field.

    He isn’t giving up many line drives either — his LD%, according to MnLsplits, is ~16%, so it sounds like there is some unluckiness in his .324 BABIP.

  7. josesthyroid

    I have to believe 8 wins at AAA atleast gets you atleast a “Steady” or “Holding”, no? Gee had some really great games and some not so great games, hence why his ERA is 4.77 and the ace of the AAA staff. I think he’s got some potential to be a decent 4-5 starter at the major league level or atleast some trade value for a team looking for young pitching and in my opinion should be in the Top 25 prospects and an “UP”. His June really hurt him but what does the majority think?

  8. fonzy888

    Doesn’t recent performance have to count for something? In Gee’s last 3-starts (obviously cherry-picked for awesomeness, but his last 3 starts nonetheless), he’s:
    19.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 23 K

  9. Toby Hyde

    @ Fonzy, by your own admission, you’re cherry picking. I tried to make that point in my point, some nights, Gee’s been great, and some nights he’s been hit hard. When he strings together a whole month and a half of excellence, I’ll buy it. …

  10. josesthyroid

    If Dillon Gee were to be out 22nd best prospect, we’re in a real good spot. He deserves to be a little bit higher on the list in my opinion above Matz, Allen, Marte, Pena & Familia. Matz has some pretty good long term value, Allen is pretty inconsistent. Marte is still very young for Savannah but .230 avg still? He’s showed signs recently of being that player we’ve been looking for and when he strings together a whole month and a half of even average, I’ll buy it. Pena hasn’t really had a chance to play at all this year with his injury and Familia, despite being in the futures game, ironically enough for what he did in the past, because this year he’s been as wild as a pitcher can get. Familia is regressing and needs a different instructor to give him something to think about. I hope he and Brad Holt get shut down in the next few weeks and start rebuilding and training for next season because if they continue to go in the wrong direction, this could have long term negative results. Here’s to them bouncing back in the second half….cheers!

  11. theperfectgame

    Maybe Gee’s lower on the list than he should be, but projection is hugely important in prospect rankings, which is why guys like Familia, Allen, Matz, and Marte are all (rightly, IMO) ranked ahead of him. Those guys all have significant room for growth, whereas Gee pretty much is what he is at this point. One of the bigger challenges when putting together rankings like these is weighting ceiling vs. likelihood to reach it. Familia, for example, has the tools to be a special pitcher, in the front end of the rotation or closer, but he still has a LOT to figure out before he gets there. Gee, on the other hand, has a reasonable best case of being a back of the rotation guy or middle reliever, but unlike Familia, he’s pretty much there right now. I don’t want to speak for Toby, but he’s said before that he tends to weight a player’s ceiling more than his proximity to the bigs, so perhaps that helps explain why he put Gee where he did. Also, remember that these rankings were put together before the 2010 season started and Gee spent most of 2009 recovering from a shoulder injury that had kept him sidelined since May of last year. Gee’s defied the odds and survived on his pinpoint control and pitching intelligence, but in my opinion it’s hard to rank a guy who has no plus Major League pitches in his arsenal too high.

  12. acerimusdux

    Good point.

    I actually liked what I saw from Gee in the start vs. Strasburg, until he really lost his velocity in the 5th inning.

    The problem is a 3.96 FIP still isn’t great, after 2 years in AAA. There are times when he’s good and times when he’s not, and I think at least some of it is related to the inconsistent velocity, and inability to hold his stuff deep into games.

    last 4 years splits:

    007 008 009 010
    2.98 1.99 5.34 2.88 1st
    3.89 3.61 3.34 3.23 2nd
    2.92 3.09 3.13 3.23 3rd
    1.03 3.17 3.12 3.69 4th
    2.18 3.35 5.29 5.23 5th
    1.52 2.51 4.84 6.42 6th

    Obviously the earlier years are lower levels there, but he wasn’t having difficulty there remaining effective. He has actually been very good in AAA for 4 innings, but seems to run out of gas by inning 5 and struggle. I’m not sure if that due to loss of velocity or if it’s just that better hitters have him figured out by the third time through the lineup.

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