Top 41 Prospects Review: #16-20

Again, this is a post-season review of my Preseason Top 41 Mets Prospects, which I’m making part of the Mets’ minor league season in review.

As far as the Top Prospect review pieces, part four, on players 21-25 is here, part three, on players 26-30 is here, part two on players 31-35 is here, part one, on players #36-41 is here.

This group 16-20, is a fascinating five-some.

#16 – C Albert Cordero
What I Thought: He had the defensive skills to catch in the big leagues, making him a safe, by a-ball standards, pick to reach the big leagues and following a second-half surge in 2011 with markedly improved plate discipline, his bat had progressed to the point where he could be an MLB starter. 
Reality: It all fell apart for Cordero. Frustrated by being returned to Savannah, he tried to swing his way to St. Lucie in every at-bat and walked just six times in 28 games in April and May. Then, even when the walks returned, he drew them at a 14% clip from June through the end of the season, the hits did not. He struggled with his balance in his swing. Overall, simply put, hard-hit balls were few and far between. 
Stock: Down
On the Next Top 41? Unlikely.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 A – SAL 104 385 110 15 2 6 15 69 5 4 9 .286 .324 .382
2012 A – SAL 76 252 49 13 0 2 28 43 4 2 2 .194 .276 .270

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP ISO
2011 A – SAL 5.5 16.5 3.6 1.4 .330 .096
2012 A – SAL 5.2 14.9 9.7 0.7 .223 .075

 

#17 – SS Wilmer Flores
What I Thought: Flores was not a shortstop and aside from outstanding contact skills, had not shown the ability to hit for power or draw walks (get on base) that would make him a valuable corner guy.
Reality: Well, the Mets moved Flores off of shortstop, first to third base, and then mixed in time at second and third after he reached double-A. In addition to making a ton of contact, he began to show the power with a career-high 18 homeruns in the season in which he turned 21, that would make him a valuable piece on an infield corner.
Stock: Movin up in the world like elevators. 
On the Next Top 41? Uh, yeah, like top three.

Basic


AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 – FSL 516 139 26 2 9 27 68 8 2 6 .269 .309 .380
2012 – FSL 242 70 12 0 10 18 30 8 1 3 .289 .336 .463
2012 – EL 251 78 18 2 8 20 30 2 1 1 .311 .361 .494
2012 Total 493 148 30 2 18 38 60 10 2 4 .300 .349 .479

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP ISO
2011 – FSL 6.6 12.2 4.8 1.6 .291 .110
2012 – FSL 8.1 11.0 6.6 3.7 .286 .174
2012 – EL 10.2 10.9 7.3 2.9 .326 .183
2012 Total 9.1 11.0 6.9 3.3 .306 .178

 

**I wanted to make a point by putting Cordero, who could play a valuable defensive position above Flores, who clearly could not play short last winter. Flores’ bat progressed while the Mets worked to find him a defensive home. Cordero’s regressed. Obviously, this pair of rankings looks silly now by the end of the 2012 season.**

 

#18 – Matt den Dekker
What I Thought: His defense would make him a big leaguer eventually, but I was concerned that he would never hit enough to hold down an everyday job.
Reality: He blew through AA, and the strikeouts ate his batting average in AAA.  He fanned in 28% of his plate appearances.
Stock: Down. I do not think he will hit enough to hold down an everyday job and he turned 25 in August, 2012.
On the Next Top 41? Probably near the end.

Basic


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SF SAC HBP AVG OBP SLG
2011 Total 154 539 143 32 11 17 51 156 6 10 10 .265 .337 .460
2012 EL 58 238 81 21 4 8 20 64 4 1 5 .340 .397 .563
2012 IL 77 295 65 10 4 9 14 90 5 1 2 .220 .256 .373
2012 Total 135 533 146 31 8 17 34 154 9 2 7 .274 .321 .458
MiLB Career 316 1176 325 76 19 34 94 338 15 12 18 .276 .335 .460

Advanced


XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP 1B rate ISO
2011 Total 9.7 25.3 8.3 2.8 .339 13.5 .195
2012 EL 12.3 23.9 7.5 3.0 .429 17.9 .223
2012 IL 7.3 28.4 4.4 2.8 .279 13.2 .153
2012 Total 9.6 26.3 5.8 2.9 .348 15.4 .184
MiLB Career 9.8 25.7 7.1 2.6 .355 14.9 .184

 

 

#19 – Josh Edgin
What I Thought: He was close to ready to contribute as a MLB bullpen LOOGY with a heavy fastball/slider combination.
Reality: Nailed it. Major League lefties hit .164/.246/.345 against him in 55 AB, while righties beat him up at .263/.364/.474 in 38 AB.
Stock: Up. He’s graduated.
On the Next Top 41? No.

 

#20 – Akeel Morris
What I Thought: He was a raw right-hander with a good arm.
Reality: He was even rawer than I thought, and the fastball was not quite as good. He basically had no pitching experience before the Mets drafted him, enamored with lively arm. He was sitting 92-93 with Kingsport.  After allowing 10 runs in two innings his final start, and 17 runs over his final 4.1 innings as a starter in July, the Mets moved Morris to the bullpen where his results were much better. As a reliever, he fanned 27 batters and walked 10 while allowing just eight hits in 16 innings. Both runs he allowed out of the pen came on solo homers for a 1.13 ERA. At a slight 6’1″, 170, he was always a long shot to start, but now he might have a home in the bullpen.
Stock: Down.
On the Next Top 41? Perhaps near the back.

Basic


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
APP 11 3.86 11/11 51.33 30 28 22 5 38 61
APP 12 7.99 6/11 38.3 38 37 34 7 22 50

Advanced


BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 H/9 R/9 BB% SO% TBF
APP 11 6.7 10.7 1.6 0.9 5.3 4.91 16.8 27.0 226
APP 12 5.2 11.7 2.3 1.6 8.9 8.69 12.3 27.9 179

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