Top 41 Prospects Review – 30-41

Halfway through the minor league season, it’s time to check in on my pre-season Top 41 prospects.  I’ll go through #11-29 tomorrow and finish up with #10-1 on Wednesday morning, or at least that’s the plan.  The half review will also check in on guys I missed on who deserved to be ranked, (hint: Lucas Duda & Eric Campbell) and then I’ll check in to see if there are patterns in my hits and misses to find ways I can do it better.

I’m going to warn you, this post will be a little grim, but the next few installments in the series will be better.

#30 RHP Eric Beaulac

Why Ranked Here: With a low-90s fastball and a slider that flashed plus at times and a K/9 over 11 in the SAL in ’09 Beaulac was a mini-sleeper for me as a future nice MLB bullpen piece entering the year.

What Happened: Beaulac’s K rates have gone from awesome to awful.  He’s walking 4.5 guys per nine with 17 wild pitches in advanced-A with St. Lucie.

Stock: Down.


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 A+ 3.33 14/13 67.67 63 39 25 1 33 43 4.4 5.7 1.3 0.1 51.8

#31 CF Chase Greene

Why Ranked Here: He’s a toolsy young outfielder, who the Mets drafted in the 16th round in 2009.  The Mets  paid $125,000 him to sign, the team’s sixth largest bonus in the draft class.

What Happened: The 20-year old has been hurt and thus far limited to four games for Kingsport.

Stock: Holding.  He’s still a toolsy young outfielder.

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
10 APP 4 14 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 .286 .333 .429

#32 RHP Tobi Stoner

Why Ranked Here: He was invited to big league camp.

What Happened: Despite making one big league appearance when the Mets were very short on arms, he’s pitched like a dude who belongs at AAA and nothing more.

Stock: Down

ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 AAA 5.54 17/17 92.67 116 65 57 12 30 66 2.9 6.4 2.2 1.2 42.9
10 MLB 3.86 1/0 2.1 3 1 1 0 1 0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 50

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#33 2B Jordany Valdespin

Why Ranked Here: The 22-year old Valdespin is a good athlete and a plus runner.

What Happened: He began the year playing short for St. Lucie, but got hurt at the end of April, allowing Wilfredo Tovar to play short in his absence.  Valdespin has since moved to second to accommodate Wilmer Flores.  The .300 batting average is nice, but if he’s going to move up the ladder towards the big leagues, as a top-of-the-order type with below average power, simply he must learn to take a walk and do it now, since he’s not young for the level.

Stock: Slipping


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
10 A+ 48 203 61 13 2 5 7 29 11 8 .300 .340 .458

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#34 RHP Scott Moviel

Why Ranked Here: I moved Moviel down 25 spots from 2009 to 2010.  I saw the 6’11” RHP in perhaps his best career start in 2008, and held on to that image of what he could become, a groundball machine.  However, last year, by his own admission he lost the feel for his curveball and picked up slider.

What Happened: The FSL beat him up as a starter where he had a 6.34 ERA and 32 walks against 46 strikeouts in 65.1 innings, unacceptable rates in both categories.  He was pushed to the bullpen when Brad Holt moved down to St. Lucie, but he’s struggled in that role (6 BB, 3 K, – 7 IP) initially.

Stock: Barring a big second half, off the list next year.

ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 A+ 6.10 16/13 72.33 89 58 49 6 38 49 4.7 6.1 1.3 0.7 39.4

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#35 SS Robbie Shields

Why Ranked Here: The Mets’ third rounder had an unimpressive debut with Brooklyn.   Scouts didn’t think he could play short.

What Happened: Shields had Tommy John Surgery last fall.  He’s played in 15 games in the GCL, 11 as a DH and four now as a SS.

Stock: With a strong showing at Savannah (or St. Lucie) in the second-half, Shields could move back up.


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
10 GCL 15 54 14 3 1 1 5 7 1 1 .259 .322 .370

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#36 LF Julio Concepcion

Why ranked Here: I talked to a scout who was impressed by his tools

What happened: I’ll admit, I tossed a dart on this one, and thus far, missed.  There’s not a lot separating guys at the bottom of the top 41, and I went with a good scouting report.  He’s now 20, and will be 21 in September.  He’s drawn zero walks and has struck out 11 times in his first 16 games while repeating the GCL.

Stock: Down

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
10 GCL 16 62 17 3 1 0 0 11 0 1 .274 .270 .355

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#37 LHP Hisanori Takahashi

Why ranked here: I thought he’d be a nice lefty piece in the Mets bullpen

What happened: Takahashi was a decent lefty piece in the Mets ‘pen.  Then, when the Mets were short on arms, he made two great starts.  However,  the magic ran out when he put up a 5.79 ERA in his five June starts.  That shouldn’t obscure the point that he’s been effective out of the ‘pen with 35 K and 15 BB, six of which were intentional, in 29 innings of relief.

Stock: Graduated off this list


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 MLB 4.15 25/9 78 79 36 36 9 31 72 3.6 8.3 2.3 1.0 37.3

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#38 LHP Angel Cuan

Why Ranked here: As a little lefty with some feel for his secondary offerings, I thought he’d be a decent org guy with a chance to stick eventually.

What happened: Cuan’s been solid over five starts for the Brooklyn Cyclones, but I expect prospects at that level to miss more bats.

Stock: Down

ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 NYP 2.15 5/5 29.33 26 7 7 0 7 17 2.1 5.2 2.4 0.0 44.3

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#39 OF Nick Santomauro

Why Ranked Here: I thought Santomauro would hit at least a little bit and I trusted that the former Ivy League MVP would make the adjustments pro ball demands of successful players.

What Happened: Clearly, he hasn’t hit or made the adjustments.  He’s struggled defensively as well, in nearly every facet: reading balls off the bat, tracking balls, holding on to catches and throwing.

Stock: Down


G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
10 SAL 42 160 26 7 0 0 10 38 2 1 .163 .213 .206

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#40 LHP Roy Merritt

Why Ranked Here: I thought Merritt had a chance to be a big league lefty specialist.

What Happened: Merritt’s been OK as the B-Mets’ left-handed specialist.  That’s not really the same as doing it in the big leagues.

Compare:

Vs. LHH: .224/.320/.271, 8 BB, 21 K, 85 AB
Vs. RHH: .265/.326/.419, 10 BB, 17 K, 117 AB

Basically, he’s limited to pitching against lefties in AA.

Stock: Down


ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 EL 4.64 35/0 52.33 50 31 27 4 18 38 3.1 6.5 2.1 0.7 46.8
10 IL 14.54 4/0 4.33 9 8 7 0 1 3 2.1 6.2 3.0 0.0 42.9

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#41 LHP James Fuller

Why Ranked Here: I thought Fuller had a chance to grow into a big league reliever specialist

What Happened: Fuller is fourth in the SAL in ERA with his 1.81 ERA.  He’s become more comfortable with his changeup as the year has gone on.  He’s 88-91 on his fastball.  Scouts grade his curveball as below average, and Fuller has used it less in favor of his changeup as the year has gone on.  However, multiple scouts have told me that they preferred Fuller, who turned 23 on June 1, to former rotation mates Brandon Moore and Mark Cohoon because Fuller has a chance to be a big league reliever.

Stock: Up some.

ERA G/GS IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB HR/9 GB%
10 SAL 1.81 15/15 89.33 72 28 18 1 25 83 2.5 8.4 3.3 0.1 41.30%

There are 8 comments

  1. josesthyroid

    Grim? That’s down right awful. Oh my word…..There’s a few guys that were left off the Top 41 list but that’ll happen no matter what. I think you should have some more polls on here for the guys that know about Mets Prospects and have ups and downs each week or month atleast. Maybe each week pick a few guys that are on the way up or down and that’ll make it easier at the halfway mark and next year to see who was on what list often. I got a few ideas for guys like John Church, Cory Vaughn, Matt Harrison, Erik Goeddel, Blake Forsythe, Matt Harvey etc…etc. if you’re going to do a new half way list, which I think is a good idea if you want some ideas of guys that should be on that Top 41 list. All in all, I really enjoy your site and you do a great job of keeping me and all the other Mets fans up to date at what’s going on down on the farm. Keep up the good work and thanks!

  2. acerimusdux

    Nice Job. With the writeup anyway. Maybe not so much the list. :) That said, I think last year’s system thinned out pretty quickly after about 25 names, so there really weren’t too many winners to be found in that 31-40 range.

    Just digging up one my old lists from last October, I see I included such luminaries as Jeff Kaplan, Eddie Kunz, and Hector Pellot in that range, as well as several of the names above. Meanwhile, just missing, at #41, Darrell Ceciliani. With Josh Satin, Eric Campbell, Wilfredo Tovar, and Josh Stinson actually missing the top 50.

    So I’m not doing any better.

  3. adropofvenom

    It seems to me that you’re a really hard grader Toby, your comments on Valdespin in particular seem especially strange to me.

    Valdespin is a middle infielder hitting .300/.340/.458, 22 is perfectly age appropriate for A+ ball. I know we’re used to seeing teenagers there with the way the Mets typically operate, but lets not lose our sense of perspective. His contact rates seem well above-average. You rip on his lack of power, when he’s sporting a .158 IsoP, again, as a middle infielder. That doesn’t seem below-average to me. Yeah, he doesn’t walk right now. But he’s just doing too many things right right now for you to say his stock is “Slipping”, and it’s not like A+ prospects can’t learn how to lay off some bad pitches.

  4. Toby Hyde

    @adrop…
    Maybe “holding” would have been more appropriate, but he bottom line is that if Valdespin is going to have big league value, he’s going to have to learn to take a walk.

  5. adropofvenom

    I don’t disagree with you that he’s going to have to learn some plate discipline as he continues to work his way up through the system. But with the bar for middle infielders being as low as it is, someone who can hit for an average, with some semblance of power (even if it’s only average for a middle infielder power) should not be discounted in any way. Just average plate discipline would turn him into a Top 15 prospect, IMO.

  6. fonzy888

    Sorry, but that’s a pretty soft explanation, Toby, even with the revision to “holding”. When your 33rd ranked prospect is a 22 y/o MIF that’s OPSing .800 (whose #1 tool is arguably his speed) in the most pitcher-friendly league in the Minors, that is not ‘slipping’ or ‘holding’. By any rational measure, that’s moving up.

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