This is part two of my review of my preseason ranking of the Mets Top 41 Prospects. Part one is here. This will lead to an in-season reranking, before next winter’s new Top 41.
ALL STATS IN TABLES CURRENT AS OF JULY 1, 2009.
Stock: Up, a little
In the last year and a half, Stoner has pitched in five different leagues and cruised through four of the five. Only in AAA had he had trouble after getting roughed up in his first two outings, before settling into six shutout innings in his third start. Even in that outing, Stoner didn’t strike out a batter. That many balls in play, combined with a gb/fb ratio of 0.65 is just not going to work at the MLB level. As well developed as Stoner’s offspeed arsenal is with a curve, a slider, a change and a splitter, he still is held back by his below average (87-89 mph) fastball. Before telling me I’ve under-ranked Stoner, name all of the righties in MLB starting rotations who regularly throw below 90. Support your argument with pitch-fx data.
His strikeout rate is up from 14% last year in the Appy League to 18.5% this year in the SAL. Welch just hasn’t yet shown the offensive skills to merit a spot on this list as exclusively a 1B prospect.
Allen is still young, but his most relevant ratios (K/9, BB/9, K/BB) have all regressed since his 2008 in the GCL. That’s to be expected. The question for a pitcher like Allen with a fringy fastball, is whether he’s added any life to the pitch. As far as I know, that hasn’t happened to a significant degree.
Stock: Holding, barely
Coming into this year, Lutz had impressed scouts and put up big numbers in the NYP for month, but failed to stay healthy over two seasons. In the first half of 2009, he’s again failed to stay fully healthy, but hasn’t put up the power numbers that make for impact prospect status. However, Lutz has shown some strike zone control, having struck out in 18% of his plate appearances while walking in 13%. He’ll need to turn that strike zone control into a few more extra base hits to move up in the rankings by season’s end.
At 22, Lutz is neither old nor young for the FSL.
Stock: down some
Compare 2008 to 2009. They look pretty similar don’t they? Ramirez still doesn’t give up any homers, but walks over four batters per nine and doesn’t miss enough bats having seen his K/rate dip below 6. He’s still averaging under five innings a start, although his innings per start is up a tick from 4.5 innings last year to 4.8 this season.