Upper Levels Weds: All About 2B: Turner, Valdespin, Satin… And Nieuwenhuis

@ Buffalo Bisons 4, SWB Yankees 3 (7 innings)
SWB Yankees 4, @ Buffalo Bisons 1 (7 innings)

The Bisons, at 1-5 in their last six games, have now slipped into third place in the wild card hunt, 4.5 games out of a playoff spot with five games to play.  That’s too bad.
In game one, 2B Justin Turner (.315/.378/.482 – pictured) was 3-4 with a double and a home run, his second straight game with a two-bagger and a blast.  He’s two months younger than Joaquin Arias, has shown more pop at AAA and more patience.  He deserves a chance in September.  If Reyes doesn’t make it back, there should be enough AB to go around.  If not, well, it’ll be an interesting look at organizational priorities.

CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis was 3-3 in game two.  The 23-year old has struggled to a .214/.287/.327 line with 33 strikeouts in his first 25 games in AAA.  Sure, guys can have bad months, but it’s also a pretty good reminder that AAA really is a tougher level than AA.  The strikeouts are the most alarming.  I calculate his BABIP at .308 right now, so he hasn’t been terribly unlucky, he just hasn’t been putting the ball in play enough.  I don’t want to make too much of 98 at bats, but fans have to realize that at this point, he can’t be part of the Mets plans for next year and despite his impressive .289/.337/.510 performance in AA, he still has things to work on in AAA.

Game 2, Josh Stinson: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR.  Bah.

AA: Binghamton Mets 6, Portland Sea Dogs 5
After taking an 0-3 on Wednesday, 2B Jordany Valdespin is down to .225/.231/.292 in 22 games in AA with one walk and 19 strikeouts.  The 22-year old is headed for the Arizona Fall League this year.  As Adam Rubin noted in his weekly farm report at ESPNNY, “Mets officials hoped to send 2008 first-round pick Reese Havens to the Arizona Fall League, but the second baseman continues to see doctors for persistent oblique injuries and is not expected to be ready to participate.” So, now it’s Valdespin, who’s struggling at AA.
1B Josh Satin, who the Mets moved to first to make room for Valdespin, homered Wednesday.  Satin might not have Valdespin’s speed or hops, but unlike Valdespin, the 25-year old Satin has shown he can hit AA pitching going .311/.399/.487 for Binghamton in 73 games.

There are 11 comments

    1. theperfectgame

      He’s done well at every stop. I assume he’ll be sent to AAA next spring, but I expect a September callup (at the latest).

      The Mets are gonna have some 40-man roster issues in the 2011 offseason, though. Among others, the following players would be exposed to next winter’s Rule V draft if left off the 40-man roster:

      Wilmer Flores
      Kirk Nieuwenhuis
      Reese Havens
      Jeurys Familia
      Cesar Puello
      Jefry Marte
      Robert Carson
      Sean Ratliff
      Wilfredo Tovar
      Mark Cohoon
      Josh Satin
      Brad Holt
      Kai Gronauer
      Eric Campbell
      Alonzo Harris
      Angel Cuan
      Eric Beaulac
      Brandon Moore
      Jim Fuller
      Richard Lucas
      Stefan Welch

      1. Russ

        Great job compiling that list. It looks like an incentive to trade a bunch of prospects, perhaps to upgrade a single position like 2B. This is tough to answer because we don’t know what will happen in 2011, but if all of those prospects are still in the Mets organization a year from now, which ones do you protect?

      2. theperfectgame

        Thanks. I try to maintain Rule V eligibility and stuff like options and service time for Met players myself, since that info can be tough to find online.

        Right now I’d say Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Havens, and probably Familia and Carson are locks. I’d expect Puello, Marte, Ratliff, and maybe Cohoon are also probably pretty safe bets (unless they have awful 2011s). From there it probably depends on how the seasons go. Some of the lower level guys might be left exposed with the hope that they’d be too raw for teams to take a chance on. We’ll have a better idea this time next year.

      3. mark4212

        I was going to say remember all of these guys if they are picked in the rule 5 draft have to stay on the MLB team that claims them an entire year.

        The people you most likely have to cover are guys in AA and Pitchers. Pitchers can be hidden for a year in the bullpen, Santana style, then sent to the minors the following year.

        Holding a position player for a full year is pretty detrimental to the team.

      4. theperfectgame

        That’s a good thing to point out. If Marte or Puello struggle mightily in St. Lucie next year, perhaps the Mets gamble and leave them exposed. However, I think they might tend to err on the side of caution if they can swing it, remembering what happened with Jesus Flores.

        With a lot of those guys on that list, especially in the bottom two-thirds, whether they’re protected will probably have a lot to do with how they perform in 2011.

      5. pazzo

        Who knows how many slots will be available on the 40 in 2011 … and yes, it will depend on how they perform next season.

        I read somewhere that the Mets are high on Gronauer and if he performs in the AFL & continues to hit as he has … he’s got a good shot.

        Flores: unless there is a major shakeup Reyes isn’t going anywhere, so there’s a logjam at ss … next season they should try to find another position for Flores.

        As someone mentioned, another team may take a shot selecting a lower level hot pitching prospect, as opposed to a low level fielder so I think the non-phenom fielder would be safe.

      6. mistermet

        I know besides Valdespin, Dillon Gee and Zach Lutz are eligible. Lucas Duda would’ve been eligible as well. I though there were a few others who might’ve been, but those were the big names that I saw.

      7. theperfectgame

        Here’s the list I posted a few weeks ago:

        Dillon Gee
        Lucas Duda
        Francisco Pena
        Juan Lagares
        Scott Moviel
        Josh Stinson
        Jordany Valdespin
        Zach Lutz
        Eric Niesen
        Michael Antonini
        Brant Rustich
        Eduardo Aldama
        Armando Rodriguez
        Roy Merritt

        Duda has already been added. Gee and Lutz are, IMO, locks. Stinson and Valdespin are headed to the AFL, which to me suggests that they’re the next most likely to be protected.

      8. theperfectgame

        Also, pazzo, I don’t know if you saw it, but I replied to your question about Rule 5 eligibility in the “Failcouer, Arias & Duda!” thread.

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